Fantasy football is finally here, and it couldn’t have come any sooner for us fans. Before you draft though, I hope you have done your proper preparation. This includes mock drafts, articles, examining last year’s statistics, players who changed teams, and examining your own inner gusto of who you think will produce and who wont. In this article I’m going to breakdown who I like and hate for the coming fantasy year and why (PPR only, not standard). I personally don’t even believe standard scoring is fantasy football, but if you do, kudos.
Regardless, I hope this can maybe even help you just a little bit before you draft your team. I’ll break down who might perform like last season, who you should avoid, and who you should jump all over if they are available.
This Isn’t Last Year
1) Devonta Freeman: I know what he did last year. He was the leading RB scorer in Fantasy, but he didn’t break 100 yards rushing after week 7. NOT ONCE. And he only compiled 2 rushing touchdowns after week 6. What kept his numbers afloat was really his receptions and reception touchdowns. He had games with 7,10, 8, and 6 receptions from week 8 on. If Matt Ryan want to keep throwing to him, fine. But I’m going to take a step back from drafting him so early. He was efficient and showed us all what we thought we might see the year prior. But this year Im predicting he cools down. I also don’t like Coleman being right there in the background lurking for touches. He won’t be the same RB.
2) AJ Green: Everyone knows what AJ is capable of. He is a Top-5 PPR WR when he is fully healthy, and I think he’ll have a better go of it this season. Despite him playing in almost every game, that nagging ankle injury kept his overall numbers down. AJ only had 4 touchdowns all year and only broke 100 receiving yards twice in the first 11 weeks. That’s not the AJ we have grown to love. However, he finished with 6 touchdowns from week 12 to 17.
I think he’s a steal in the second or third round of the draft considering his talent level and that he is healthy right now. So don’t let last season cloud your judgement here and potentially add a Top-3 PPR WR. If he goes in round one, which I’ve seen latey, that’s still a great pick. But if he falls past round 1, pounce all over him. Personally, I like him this season more than Dez, Allen Robinson, and Sammy Watkins, who are all going in the same range of the draft.
3) Eddie Lacy: As everyone as seen, the big man ain’t so big anymore. After being called out by his coach and the rest of the NFL fan base, Lacy came into spring training looking much thinner and ready to carry more of a workload. The kind of workload that lead so many people to pick him in the first round of last year’s draft. Starks can make this pick a bit concerning, and there is solid RB value later on in the draft, but if Lacy returns to form he is going to be a monster with all the opportunities he will have in the red zone. Feel safe taking him this year, especially since he’s falling towards the end of the second/beginning of the third round in most drafts.
4) Jonathan Stewart: I never trusted him at all. I truly think last year was an anomaly. He put up some great numbers, no denying that. But he’s 29 now and has missed 23 games in 4 seasons. I just don’t think the pace and steady digits he put up last year will continue this season. If you do, take the risk, but in rounds 4-6, I say it’s too early to take that risk. In PPR, I’d go with Giovani Bernard or Danny Woodhead over him. Seriously.
Stay Far Away
1) Jamaal Charles: The only reason I say stay away Jamaal is because of how high he’s being drafted. I’m not taking the risk on an injury-prone RB who isn’t even playing yet and has West and Ware to compete with. He’s currently being drafted in most leagues between rounds 3-5. I just think there’s a lot more steady and trusty value in those early rounds to be had. If he falls to say, the 6th or 7th round, maybe that’s the time you take the risk. We all know what he can do, just don’t draft him in top 5 rounds if possible or stay away completely. He may have a nice year, but a top 4-5 round pick isn’t worth it.
2) Dez Bryant: Prescott may be the real deal. Maybe. He may even make Dez look even better than we’ve seen in the past with Romo, but I remain skeptical. Last year he only had 1 week with more than 100 yards. This was in part to not having Romo – which he won’t have again. Also, keep in mind it’s all about what value you can get where.
Dez is going in the 1st or 2nd round in almost every draft I’ve seen. That’s probably fair with his buddy and confidant Romo healthy, we all know how good Dez is, but Romo’s not healthy and Dak is a total question mark. I would take AJ Green, Allen Robinson, Alshon Jeffrey, or Mike Evans over him in those early rounds without even batting an eye.
3) LeSean McCoy: LeSean had an up and down season last year. He finished as a Top-15 overall RB despite missing a quarter of the season, which is pretty impressive, but he always seems to go down and I don’t trust the Bills offense. I have no faith in the Bills passing game to keep the chains moving and offer up more touches and goal-line work to boost his season stats. Maybe I’m wrong and Shady will be Shady, but I say he’s over the hill and if he’s going in the 2nd or 3rd round like I’ve seen many times, grab someone else instead. I’d even wait a round or two and grab someone like Latavius Murray or Matt Forte over him.
4) Carlos Hyde: Speaking of RB’s I don’t trust, here is the King Kong of unproven RBs being taken far too early. Hyde didn’t even play a single down after week 7, but that is last year. This year could be entirely different as we all know. But still, he only broke 100 yards rushing in week 1 and then not again for the following 6 weeks.
I could see Hyde pulling a Devonta Freeman and breaking out this season instead of last year like many predicted, but I wouldn’t bet on it or on the 49ers offense. If they have no passing game, defenses will just hone in on the rush and stop him. Again though, it’s all about where they’re going in the draft. If he was falling to the 7th round or so, I’d jump all over that chance. However, all I’ve seen is him going in the 3rd/4th round. I’m taking a different player in round 3 and 4 without any hesitation.
Jump All Over Them
1) Latavius Murray: He’s being drafted far too low. Considering how shaky all these “elite” Rb’s are and how injury plagued the position is in general, I think Latavius is a steal. He got through all 16 games last season and finished 3rd in carries, 6th in rush yards, and 11th in rushing TDs. Those are fairly impressive numbers for the young man. I like his game a lot and because of his draft position between rounds 4-6, I say jump all over him. He could easily have a better season than Doug Martin and Lesean McCoy who are both going in the top 2 rounds. Value, value, value.
2) Mike Evans: Evans has a steady and talented young quarterback throwing to him in Winston. He”s also shown the ability to look like a true #1 WR. I think the kid can easily finish as a top-10 PPR WR, maybe even top 5. He has all the tools to make the pro-bowl and with Winston throwing to him, if he stays healthy, he can put up some legit numbers.
He’s currently going in round 3 or so and I love him at that value. He only had 3 touchdowns and caught an embarrassing 2/15 red zone targets, but those numbers are both likely to increase after another year working with his young quarterback and with an improved defense. His ceiling is high, really high.
3) Randall Cobb: I’ve been seeing Cobb being drafted in the 4th or 5th round. That’s insane to me. He played all 16 games and was a steady force for Aaron Rodgers. With Jordy Nelson back, I only like him more. The guy had a difficult time finding space when the only other guy the defense had to worry about was injured (Nelson).
I know, Cobb only had 1 touchdown after week 9, which is pathetic with Rodgers throwing to you, but I think that’s because of all the attention he drew from the defenses. He’s only 26 years old and has Rodgers throwing to him. If Cobb is there late in round 3 or 4, and he should be, please draft him. Barring no major injuries like before, he could easily put up a Top-10 PPR WR season.
4) Giovani Bernard: It’s not that I think Giovani is going to be some spectacular breakout RB, that’s unlikely with Hill around and not getting many touches between the tackles, but I do think he’ll have a great PPR year and can make you look like a genius for getting him later on in the draft. While people are picking Jonathon Stewart and Jeremy Langford in the same range of picks, go ahead and grab a guy you know will get catches, and lots of them.
Gio may not be amazing as he’s finished 29th, 25th, and 28th in carries the past three season, but he also was a Top-10 RB in targets, receiving yards, and receptions. With Hill having a down year last year and having some injury concerns as well, Gio looks to pounce on getting more touches any way possible. And with Sanu and Jones gone AJ will garner a lot of attention, so Dalton will be looking to check-down quite a bit.
