Def Pen’s 2017 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings

NFL Power Rankings
Blake Bortles answers questions on the first day of Jacksonville Jaguars OTAs, at EverBank Field. (Photo: Bruce Lipsky/Florida Times-Union)

It’s crowded at the top. The Week 16 NFL Power Rankings sport more teams in Tier One than any other week of the season thus far. The packing at the top, however, might not be for reasons you think. There’s doesn’t seem to be a dearth of great teams this season. Thus, the additional squads in the top tier represent tangible flaws in even the very good teams more than it stands for the greatness of the league.

For all the reasons stated, we might be in for some good ‘ol fashioned randomness in this year’s playoffs. Random is good, right? At the very least, it makes things interesting. With that in mind, here’s where we stand:

Def Pen’s 2017 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Tier One: Legit Super Bowl Contenders

  • Minnesota Vikings
  • New England Patriots
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • Carolina Panthers
  • New Orleans Saints

Case Keenum! Who knew? Just when it felt like the only people who thought he was still a legit pro quarterback were his parents, he goes and plays the best ball of his career. Keenum’s production could (deservedly) get viewed with a skeptical eye – we’ve seen veteran QBs get hot before only to flame out when it mattered most – but it’s hard not to view the Vikings (11-3) as anything other than a serious championship contender.

The Patriots (11-3) won a pretty big game in Week 15 against the Steelers. However, the result was quite a bit closer than some thought. To many Pittsburgh fans, the actual result was probably a wrong one, considering how the last minute or so played out. Maybe the gap between New England and the rest of the AFC isn’t as big as we thought. For that, the Pats move down one slot in the NFL Power Rankings.

Pittsburgh (11-3) showed they are absolutely capable of beating New England this season. We’ve also been pretty hard on Ben Roethlisberger in this space this season, but just by virtue of staying healthy and being the quarterback on a winning team, Big Ben has put himself in the MVP conversation.

The Eagles (12-2) are really good. They’ve also benefited from a weak(ish) schedule. (Remember, they finished last in 2016. So not only did they play a last-place schedule, but their out-of-division opponents came from AFC and NFC West – two divisions that were weaker than expected – plus Philly’s own NFC East wasn’t as competitive as originally thought.) There isn’t much left to glean from the Eagles this season. They have a bad Raiders team this week before the Cowboys in the finale in a game that Philly could afford to throw away.

Since there seems to be a bit of a strange structure to the NFL’s elite teams this season, it might make a great time for the Rams (10-4) to make their presence known. It would be ahead of schedule and it sounds kind of crazy, but L.A. has as good a chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy as just about anyone.

Carolina (10-4) will almost assuredly be playing as a wild-card in the playoffs. But while there have been times they haven’t played all that well this season. Plus all the off-field stuff going on around this organization. Still, there’s an argument to be made that the Panthers should be considered the favorite to come out of the NFC. (That argument isn’t being made here, but it’s out there, and it holds some merit.)

These last four weeks have been pretty lopsided for New Orleans (10-4). They’ve beat Carolina and the Jets but suffered losses to Atlanta and the Rams. Despite having a leg up on the Panthers to win the division, we’re putting the Saints just below Carolina in the NFL Power Rankings because of a hunch that the Saints may have peaked too early, whereas the Panthers are playing their best football now.

Tier Two: Ready to Shock the (NFL) World(???)

  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Atlanta Falcons
  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • Seattle Seahawks

Blake Bortles has become a bit of a punchline for Jacksonville (10-4). Bortles is often used as a stand-in for the league’s bad QB play. He’s played his best football these past couple weeks, but the playoffs tend to be a different animal. The Jags are frisky, but look to be just a little too young and a piece or two short of being a true Super Bowl contender.

Atlanta (9-5) still has plenty of work to do to lock up a spot in the playoffs. It doesn’t make it any easier that the Falcons have to go through the Saints and Panthers yet, either. Atlanta has proven they can be really, really dangerous when they have the ball, we’re just not so sure they’re going to get that chance in this season’s postseason.

It looks like the Chiefs (8-6) have/will do just enough to hang onto the AFC West top spot. Even though they’ve gotten back on the winning track, Kansas City still looks like a shell of the Chiefs team that was the class of the NFL through the first five weeks.

The Seahawks (8-6) could put their roster up against any other in the NFL and have an advantage over pretty much every else in the league. However, lots of those talented players on Seattle’s roster is hurt. And the weak offensive line and running game have put too much pressure on Russell Wilson to do everything. This looks like a team wearing down … not a good sign going into the playoffs (if they get there). How much roster turnover before next season will be one of the NFL’s most fascinating subplots between then and now.

Tier Three: Don’t Expect an Extended Playoff Stay if They Even Make it There

  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • Detroit Lions
  • Buffalo Bills
  • Tennessee Titans

The AFC is largely made up of a few very good teams and a lot of bad teams. The Ravens (8-6) are in the AFC’s middle class because somebody has to. It’d be great for the fan base if Baltimore makes the playoffs, but don’t expect anything from them once there.

The Chargers (7-7) had a chance to take over the AFC West last week but lost to the Chiefs. We’re still not entirely ruling out a Kansas City collapse, which plays a role in L.A. ranking this high in the NFL Power Rankings. Ultimately, however, it looks like the Chargers season will end up being symbolic of so many of their individual games: close with a chance to win it late, but L.A. ends up coming up just short of a winner.

Detroit (8-6) is a game out of the last wild-card, but they hold the tiebreaker over Seattle and Dallas. That’s could prove huge, but the Lions lost to the Falcons earlier which means Detroit needs Atlanta to drop both of their last two. We’re not betting on that happening.

As of right now, Buffalo (8-6) has hold of the last AFC playoff spot. But the Bills enter Week 16 as a 10.5-point underdog against the Patriots in New England. That illustrates the gap between the AFC’s top teams and the next-best. Even if the Bills can somehow pull off an upset this week, the fact that Las Vegas made them a double-digit underdog to anybody doesn’t bode well for their playoff chances.

The Titans (8-6) figured out how to win more often than not (at least up until now) with the group of players they have. Still, we keep waiting for Marcus Mariota to make a leap, and it just hasn’t happened. Sure, he’s had more than his share of injuries. But that’s all part of it, right? Mariota might not be the QB we thought he’d turn into.

Tier Four: Interesting Times Ahead

  • Dallas Cowboys
  • Green Bay Packers
  • Washington Football Team
  • Arizona Cardinals

Dallas (8-6) would probably just as soon forget about the 2017 season. With the Ezekiel Elliott fiasco and all the drama surrounding the player anthem protests and Jerry Jones taking controversial stances, this Cowboys season will end up being very memorable … just for all the wrong reasons.

The Packers (7-7) were eliminated last week after a loss to the Panthers and an Atlanta win. There are lots of rumblings amongst fans revolving around the job security of head coach Mike McCarthy, GM Ted Thompson, and defensive coordinator Dom Capers. It’ll be interesting to see if Green Bay decides it needs a management makeover or if they just run everything back next season. (Chances are the latter.) Still, getting Aaron Rodgers right will go along way towards the Packers’ climb up the 2018 NFL Power Rankings.

While the responsibility Kirk Cousins has on Washington’s (6-8) ability to win or not can get overstated, the QBs contract situation – and how it’s handled – will tell you everything you need to know about which direction the organization sees itself going in. With Cousins, they’ve been mediocre. Without him, they’d probably drop further down the NFL’s totem pole, but hitting the reset button might not be such a bad idea in D.C.

Arizona (6-8) struggled for a large chunk of this season. And they’re in a similar spot as the other teams in this tier: franchises facing a rebuild-or-run-it-back crossroads. If the Cardinals can work out a solution at quarterback, they just might be better off continuing to attempt to build a winner rather than tearing everything to build it back up. Appearing this low in the NFL Power Rankings could end up a blip on the radar. Or it could be a new normal in Arizona.

Tier Five: The False-Hope Four

  • Miami Dolphins
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • New York Jets
  • Houston Texans

If you looked at all other metrics besides a team’s record, you’d probably guess the Dolphins (6-8) were at least a win or two worse than their actual records says they are. And so ends one of the NFL’s best bad seasons.

Marvin Lewis is out in Cincinnati (5-9) after 15 years. Is he the scapegoat for this season, or is his exit a sign of more heads rolling? The fact that the Bengals are closer to the bottom of the NFL Power Rankings could double as a symbol of the franchise as a whole. 

The Jets (5-9) showed they have a few more pieces to build around than conventional wisdom suggested before the season. However, the additional wins this season may keep them from getting the quarterback they want in the NFL Draft. Was it worth it? Maybe not.

Of this group, Houston (4-10) has the best argument to keep transactions at a minimum and see what their team can do when at full health. However, at what point does it become foolish for NFL teams to ever really expect full health? And even without J.J. Watt and Deshaun Watson, being in a spot where six wins are the most the Texans can end up with suggests there’s more work to be done with this team. That turnover might start with the head coach.

Tier Six: Waiting on the (NFL) World to Change

  • Oakland (Las Vegas) Raiders
  • Denver Broncos
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • San Francisco 49ers

What do you get when you take one of the league’s most underachieving teams and move them to a place that might offer the worst home-field advantage of any NFL city? We’ll find out when the Raiders (6-8) move from Oakland to Las Vegas. Although to be fair, the move is still at least a full season away from happening. Being a lame-duck franchise in northern California is far from ideal, though.

Denver (5-9) might have the best chance of any team in the bottom three or four tiers in these NFL Power Rankings to bounce back in 2018 and bounce back into contender status. They need to figure out the quarterback position though. And that might be the toughest position to fill in all of professional sports. Bad QB play has tanked teams before, and it might (continue) to sabotage the Broncos.

How long can Tampa Bay (4-10) exist in NFL purgatory before management throws in the towel on this current incarnation of the Buccaneers? (CC: Winston, Jameis.)

Pulling off the Jimmy Garoppolo trade was pretty risky, but has proven to be a stroke of genius. It’s long been rumored that San Francisco (4-10) might be hot on the trail of Kirk Cousins, reuniting him with his old offensive coordinator, now-49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. But S.F. found a younger, cheaper, better option going forward. Look for the 49ers to keep rising in the NFL Power Rankings in 2018.

Def Pen’s 2017 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Tier Seven: The Hopeless

  • Chicago Bears
  • New York Giants
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • Cleveland Browns

There are always two steps to rebuilding a professional franchise: the teardown and the build back up. Next season, the Bears (4-10) will have to show some signs of being on the come-up. If not, the organization must ask itself if it’s ready to be built back up or if more needs to be torn down. Feels like this might be the Bears’ spot in the NFL Power Rankings for the foreseeable future.

How much faith will the Giants’ (2-12) stars (specifically Odell Beckham, Jr.) have in New York’s ability to put together another winner in what looks like is going to be the post-Eli Manning era. And if winning doesn’t happen right away, how big of a public relations mess will N.Y. have on its hands if Beckham, et. al. decide they’re tired of all the losing?

The Colts (3-11) might be trying to spin this season as being a total throw away because Andrew Luck didn’t play. However, what about the last year would make anybody 100% confident that Luck can ever get back to full health? And what would suggest Luck is the answer to all – or most – of Indianapolis’ ills?

Cleveland (0-14) is on track for 0-16. If you were to make an over/under on where the losing streak would end, where would you set the line before the under was too tempting to pass up? 20 games (0-16 this season plus the first four of next)? 25?? 30??? It sort of feels like the Browns should be relegated to the SEC or Canadian league just to prove they still (kind of) belong in the NFL, no?

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Ryan lives in Wisconsin. He was raised on a steady diet of whole milk, cheese, sports, WWF/WWE wrestling, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.

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