Last week, David Morrow highlighted his great set of NBA Power Rankings right here! Check it out!
We are winding down this NBA season!
Bi-Weekly Reminder
Multiple Linear Regression model foundation– featured here (independent variables, method, and all).
MLR Model Formula
Each team is given a cumulative score, which is a result of the values that they earn for each independent variable in the model multiplied by its respective coefficient and by 82 games.
These scores are ranked from 1 to 30.
Nuanced NBA Power Rankings
The Nuanced Rankings are more reasonable and intuitive than those of the MLR Model.
Using MLR Model as a basis, I used Strength of Schedule (SOS), Off. & Def. Efficiency (& Net Rating), injury status, and the current W-L records of the teams to refine the model’s rankings and reward winners (more, or less).
NBA Power Rankings
Top 10
- Golden State Warriors – The Warriors’ defensive unit has continued its excellence, even amid the lineup shuffling and injuries. It’s currently 1st overall. Now the offense has re-emerged; Klay’s 10-three performance is emblematic of this trend.
- San Antonio Spurs – Elite offense and defense– but there are musings, concerning whether or not they’ll have enough playmaking to contend in the playoffs. As Kawhi Leonard has escalated his play, he’s seen more double-teams on drives and PnR ball-handler possessions. Can someone else become reliable enough to get San Antonio to the NBA Finals?
- Houston Rockets -James Harden is likely taking the 2016-17 NBA MVP because the level to which he takes this offensive unit. With Harden, the Rockets become one of the most lethal offenses in recent memory. How will they fare against the league’s best defense on Tuesday vs Golden State?
- Boston Celtics – The Celtics could finish the season as the number one seed in the Eastern conference. Brad Stevens’ road to the elite of the conference has been quick.
- Washington Wizards – John Wall pushed the ball whenever the opportunity arose and torched the porous Cavaliers’ defense. How about Bradley Beal? He’s 48-40-83 this season.
- Cleveland Cavaliers – Is “The Cavaliers are withholding their true hand” a realistic claim or should their defensive futility be very concerning? To end last season, Cleveland was above average defensively but are 22nd in the NBA, as it stands right now. The last team in NBA History to win a championship while ranked in the bottom 10, defensively, was the 2001 Los Angeles Lakers.
- Toronto Raptors – Kyle Lowry has been working out again in the pregames, and Toronto’s trades have provided a more formidable defensive presence.
- Los Angeles Clippers – Puzzling squad– an exceptional victory over the Jazz, which will be important for seeding’s sake, but they follow this up with an extraordinary loss to the Kings.
- Utah Jazz – It’s quite nice to see this team clinch a playoff birth. Rudy Gobert’s offensive markmanship (from close range, but still) has elevated his game to a new level.
- Memphis Grizzlies – Better as of late, but they were sunk in a tough contest against the Warriors without Marc Gasol.
Middle 10
- Oklahoma City Thunder – Russell Westbrook continues to rack up gaudy numbers, and overall, OKC has a ferocious offensive rebounding team. However, because they don’t excel in either offense or defense, a first-round exit appears likely.
- Milwaukee Bucks – Much better with Middleton, but still quite average as a disappointing loss to Chicago would suggest.
- Portland Trail Blazers – Playing much better with seven home games left… Nurkic, Lillard and McCollum have shown that they’re a capable offensive core. Portland and Denver will play a huge game on Tuesday night.
- Denver Nuggets – Lost a tenuous eighth seed lead in a massive loss to the New Orleans Pelicans, whom they will play again twice more. Seven of their last nine will be on the road.
- Miami Heat – A year ago, I would have never imagined saying that “Dion Waiters is crucial to a team’s success”, but his playmaking ability helps to sustain his team’s production. They’ve lost three of their last four games.
- Indiana Pacers – The Pacers are not far out of fifth place. Their home/road record disparity may be alarming before the playoffs begin.
- New Orleans Pelicans -They might be too far out of the playoff race, but New Orleans has an extremely impressive defense. Additionally, although the narrative that the Pelicans are far better without Cousins is insatiable, Davis and Cousins seem to be capable of co-existing. Checking the stats from the last eight games, the Cousins/Davis’ pairing have a +4.1 net rating (via NBA.com/stats) and a defensive rating of 96. Alvin Gentry may be petitioning for an extended stay in New Orleans.
- Charlotte Hornets – I am convinced that this is a better team than they’ve shown. They are tenth in net rating; for reference, the Hawks (who have a four game lead on Charlotte) are -1.4.
- Chicago Bulls – We see you, Rajon Rondo. There’s playoff potential in this season after all.
- Dallas Mavericks – How about Seth Curry’s split? 47.9%-42.2%-84.2% from Seth is a nice addition to the Mavericks, who’ve had a pulse since their season’s nadir in November.
Bottom 10
- Atlanta Hawks – But a seven game losing streak though…quite an atrocious stretch for a team without the necessary firepower to compete nightly, hosting a top 5 defense and bottom 5 offense.
- Minnesota Timberwolves – They looked so refreshing for a stint… but have lost six straight.
- Sacramento Kings – Willie Cauley-Stein, that is all.
Kings take a late pk-callout over the Clippers!#SacramentoProud pic.twitter.com/PEuY5wxyWf
— Def Pen Hoops (@DefPenHoops) March 26, 2017
- Detroit Pistons – Ish Smith is starting now. Reality is setting in.
- New York Knicks – Getting a competent guard in the draft might be the foremost priority.
- Philadelphia 76ers – Because they have many assets in place, the 76ers will be in position for a great team in the future. Dario Saric substantiates his Rookie of the Year campaign nightly.
- Orlando Magic – Elfrid Payton seems to be growing as the tank ignites.
- Phoenix Suns – We’re still in awe of Devin Booker’s 70-point achievement.
PLAYBACK! #Suns guard Devin Booker (@dbook) erupted for an amazing 70 points last night!
Video made by @wearebhstudios #WeArePHX pic.twitter.com/g0ZlFGCTFt
— Def Pen Hoops (@DefPenHoops) March 25, 2017
- LA Lakers – That top three pick is so important– their on-court shortcomings need to be rewarded.
- Brooklyn Nets – Sad!
