After two college football playoff rankings have come out, we have a good idea for who has a chance to make the playoffs. Let’s see who has the most likely chance to make the playoff, and make a bunch of different scenarios. Let’s run through conference-by-conference, and then look at different scenarios.
ACC: The committee doesn’t seem to show much respect to #23 North Carolina, so it doesn’t look like they have much of a chance with one loss coming to South Carolina in the first week of the season. #1 Clemson needs to go undefeated, or the ACC will not have a representative in the playoffs.
Best Case: #1 Clemson wins out, stays the no. 1 seed
Worst Case: Clemson drops a game or the ACCCG against North Carolina, and the ACC doesn’t get a representative.
BIG 10: The B1G has two major contenders, and one minor contender. #3 Ohio State is undefeated, and if they win out, they’re spot is secured. They still have to play games with #14 Michigan and #13 Michigan State. If they go undefeated, they are in.
#5 Iowa is also undefeated, and with winnable regular season games to end the season, they will end 12-0. It will come down to the BIG 10 Championship Game against Ohio State, Michigan State, or Michigan. If Iowa goes undefeated and wins the B1GCG, then they will be in.
#13 Michigan State has to win out to have a chance, and even then, I don’t know if the committee will put them in after losing 39-38 against Nebraska. MSU has slim chances, but the best thing they can do is win out and see what happens. They would have to beat Ohio State and Iowa in the B1GCG.
Best Case: Ohio State wins out, beats Iowa, and makes the playoff with ease.
Worst Cases: Ohio State loses to Iowa in the B1GCG, and the committee puts in an undefeated Baylor and Notre Dame in over Iowa. This would be unlikely, but the committee did leave Baylor out last year.
Michigan beats Ohio State, but Ohio State beats Michigan State, putting Michigan into the B1GCG because they would have a lead on Ohio State. Michigan beats Iowa in the B1GCG, and I don’t think it is very likely that the committee puts in an two loss B1G Champion.
BIG 12: The BIG 12 has an interesting end of the season with TCU, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Oklahoma all with a combined record of 33-2. All of these teams play each other (TCU and Oklahoma State already played, and Oklahoma State won), and they could all potentially lose two games. The best case is that Baylor or Oklahoma State goes undefeated, and it would be hard for the committee to leave one of them out (even though Baylor was left out last year). Due to the BIG 12 having tons of logial possibilities, I will go through them all.
#1 Case: Baylor wins out, and they get put into the playoff.
#2 Case: Oklahoma State wins out, and the committee puts them in.
#3 Case: Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Baylor, and TCU and the committee puts in a 1 loss BIG 12 Champion. Because Oklahoma’s one loss came way earlier in the season, they have the highest chance of being a one loss BIG 12 team to make it.
#4 Case: TCU beats Oklahoma and Baylor, Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma, and Baylor beats Oklahoma. TCU and Baylor would be 11-1, but because TCU beat Baylor they would have the edge. I don’t see the committee putting in a 1 loss BIG 12 Champ other than Oklahoma over Notre Dame, undefeated Clemson, the SEC Champion, and an undefeated B1G Champ though or a 1 loss PAC 12 Champ.
Worst Case: Baylor loses to TCU and Oklahoma State, and beats Oklahoma, and finishes 10-2. They won’t make the playoffs with a record of 10-2. Because Oklahoma loses to Baylor, they have two losses now. They’re out. Oklahoma is able to beat TCU though, giving TCU a 10-2 record. Now Oklahoma State is going into their final game against Oklahoma with an 11-0 record. A loss in the final game of the season will definitely keep them out of the playoffs. If they lose this game, they are out of the playoff as well. Football is impossible to predict, but these four teams are pretty evenly matched, so this scenario could definitely happen, and the BIG 12 will be left out of the playoffs again unless there is madness in other conferences as well (Florida loses to FSU and beats Alabama in the playoffs, and the SEC may not have a member. More on the SEC later).
PAC 12: The PAC 12 has two teams in playoff contention- #7 Stanford and #10 Utah. Both teams have one loss- Stanford to Northwestern in a game at 9 AM PST, and Utah lost badly to USC. Stanford has an easier case to make the playoffs, with their one loss coming in week one. Utah may get left out with one loss.
#1 Case: Stanford beats #4 Notre Dame, and beats Utah in the PAC 12 Championship, giving them the #4 spot in the playoffs.
#2 Case: Stanford beats Notre Dame, but loses to Utah. The committee will debate on giving one loss Utah the fourth spot, or giving a one loss BIG 12 Champion the final spot.
Worst Case: Stanford loses to Notre Dame, likely keeping the PAC 12 out of the playoffs no matter what happens.
SEC: The SEC has two big contenders- #2 Alabama, and #11 Florida. Both have one loss, but a 1 loss SEC Champ deserves to be in the championship. I will make a case for both teams.
Alabama: They’re one loss came to Ole Miss. The committee has forgiven them though as they have handled everyone, including LSU who they bulldozed. If Alabama wins out, they are in. They will have to go to Auburn who is playing well lately, and beat Florida in Atlanta. They also have Mississippi State to beat.
Florida: The Gators have not looked pretty. They win games off of a strong defense and decent offense. They will struggle with FSU. If they win, they will be in good position to make the playoffs if they beat Alabama. A win against Bama puts them into the top four unless they lose to FSU. The Gators can’t lose.
Fun Fact: Florida lost to LSU by a touchdown, and Alabama manhandled LSU. Alabama lost to Ole Miss 43-37, and Florida beat Ole Miss the following week 38-10.
Case Holding SEC Out: Florida loses to FSU, but beats Alabama in the SECCG. Both Alabama and Florida would have two losses, but the committee may put a two loss SEC Champion in over a one loss BIG 12 school or PAC 12 school. I think they would.
Another one: Alabama loses to Auburn, Florida loses to FSU, Alabama or Florida wins the SECCG. At this point, I don’t think it matters who would win. The SEC would have to just hope that LSU slides in with just one loss.
The LSU Possibility: Let’s just say that the worst case for the BIG 12 happens, Stanford beats Notre Dame, Utah loses to UCLA, and Utah beats Stanford. This would effectively keep the BIG 12 and PAC 12 out of the playoffs, along with Notre Dame. Who would go in? You would have to say LSU. They lost one game to Alabama, and beat Florida. If Florida wins the SECCG, chaos happens for the BIG 12, PAC 12, and Notre Dame, then how could you leave out the only team to beat Florida? If this happens, then LSU and Florida will make the playoffs along with Clemson and Ohio State. If Alabama wins the SECCG and the same chaos happens, then LSU and Alabama will both make it.
Notre Dame: The Irish have an easier road to the playoffs then most. If they beat Stanford, they are likely in. If they lose to Stanford, they are out. No chance. With the Irish’s one loss coming to the #1 team in a two-point game, then they will have a good chance at making it over a BIG 12 one loss champion.
Every team in the top ten, and even a little bit outside of the top ten, has a chance to make the playoffs. Nothing is impossible in college football, and any team could win any given week. These are all possibilities, some are far-fetched, some could definitely happen (like I don’t think the BIG 12 round robin will destroy all playoff hopes, but it could happen). With a big November coming up, the best part of the season has just started. Here is who I think will make the top 4, go to the championship, and win the championship when it is all said and done:
#1 Clemson vs. #4 Baylor
#2 Alabama vs. #3 Ohio State
First two out: Notre Dame and LSU
Championship: #1 Clemson vs. #2 Alabama
CFP Champion: Alabama’s defense will be a lot better than anything Clemson has seen this season, but the Tigers will get by it. Star QB Deshaun Watson will be able to help the Tigers move the ball against the Tide, but the Tide will get a key stop in the fourth quarter, move the ball into field goal range, and kick a field goal as time expires to win the National Championship in one of the most dramatic games 27-24.
