Bogdan Bogdanovic may be a 25-year-old rookie, but the Sacramento Kings sharpshooter has plenty of potential that suggests he can lead his team for many years to come.
The man whose first name is just a shortened version of his last has quickly proven himself to be a knockdown shooter combined with a playmaker in just half of a season, getting better as every game passes. Currently, he’s averaging 10.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game in 25.9 minutes per game. He’s shot the ball at a 47.4 percent clip from the field and 38.1 percent from deep. On a Kings team brimming with young talent, Bogdanovic sticks out as a player they can build their team around.
Yes, he is 25, and yes, he’s also a rookie – the highest paid rookie ever, actually. But don’t let those things deceive you when watching him play. There’s a reason he’s worth so much money. He’s lethal out of catch-and-shoot opportunities and his sneaky-good passing ability can leave defenders spinning in circles.
He’s arguably been the Sacramento Kings’ best player outside of Willie Cauley-Stein, yet doesn’t seem to have a solidified position on the court. Listed as a 6-foot-6 shooting guard, he’s primarily played small forward this season with some intriguing repetitions at point guard sprinkled in.
What makes him such an interesting prospect going forward is that he can capably play those three positions. He has a solid handle on the ball and a keen eye for cutting teammates – great attributes for a point guard. But his undeniable shooting prowess and quick release make him a multi-option offensive threat. He has the potential to be a pick-and-roll maestro.
He loves to play off screens, giving him a range of options for himself and his teammates. He’s great as the ball-handler and drives to the basket with purpose.
What separates him from others is his innate ability to find the open man, especially those cutting to the basket. He never panics and hardly rushes, but remains calm inside the arc when surveying the floor, making him one of the best passers at his position. His assist-to-usage ratio ranks in the 90th percentile among shooting guards and a majority of those passes come out of pick-and-roll sets.
Now, he’s not perfect. He makes silly mental mistakes that could easily be avoided with an extra second of decision making.
On this last play against the Cavaliers, all he needed was another half-second to allow Kosta Koufos the space he needed for what would have been an open layup. Instead, he pushes it just a second too early and the ball is too far out of reach. He may set up his teammates on a regular basis, but his 15.2-percent turnover ratio (ranking in the 12th percentile among shooting guards) has been keeping him from being an efficient pick-and-roll threat.
Luckily, there’s plenty more to Bogdanovic than being an underrated point guard. He boasts a 59.7 effective-field-goal percentage on pull-up jump shots and a 53 effective-field-goal percentage on catch-and-shoot opportunities. He can pull up in transition, move without the ball for open looks, work the pick-and-roll or simply do it himself.
Bogdanovic’s offensive skill set is obvious. There isn’t much on that end of the court that he can’t do at an effective rate. He’s too big and too quick for most defenders. His struggles come on the opposite end of the court. While he has occasional success picking out passing lanes, he appears lost on defense. He ball-watches and isn’t disciplined enough to guard someone one-on-one for an entire possession. His activity level is high, he’s just not a “right time, right place” type of defensive player. But defense isn’t his calling card in the NBA. It wasn’t before he came into the league and it likely won’t be going forward.
His most recent 18 games are much more impressive than his first 18: He’s averaged 11.7 points and 3.7 assists on 42.3 percent 3-point shooting in 28.4 minutes per game over his most recent 18, compared to 9.3 points and 1.9 assists on 32.7 percent shooting from deep in 23.4 minutes per game before then. He’s coming into his own rather quickly and has shot up the Kings’ unofficial roster power rankings. This season in Sacramento will ultimately go down as one of their franchise’s worst, but this is the first season in a while that gives them legitimate hope for a future filled with budding talent. If his next 18 games continue to follow the trend that he’s currently on, there may be some Rookie-of-the-Year talk that won’t be as far-fetched as it seems right now.
