The NBA-Twitter world has been in disarray since the Finals ended. From Dennis Rodman making diplomatic visits to North Korea to our annual discussion of how good Nikola Jokic is, we’ve been in full offseason mode. I thought I’d do my part to soothe tensions by making a completely pointless list of the best young players in the game. Up next, the Minnesota Timberwolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns.
Karl-Anthony Towns has had a bumpy ride his first few years with the Timberwolves. One of the most skilled offensive bigs in basketball, KAT has a lot to iron out on the other end.
A few notes to consider in these rankings:
- Playoff potential (or performance) is weighed heavily. Players who have a major weakness to be exploited will be docked accordingly, at least until it’s somewhat rectified.
- The list is a ranking based on projecting the players going forward, not a ranking of how good the players are right now.
- I haven’t included anyone from the upcoming draft class. I have too much self-respect to watch college basketball, nevermind summer league.
- This is a list of the best talent under 23. The best. All of these guys are really good. If I happen to put one guy over your favorite player, it’s not that I hate your favorite player or team. Please try to remember this before you set fire to my Twitter mentions calling me an idiot (though you certainly might be right in a more general sense).
- The cutoff point, age-wise, was anyone still listed as 23 or under via Basketball-Reference.
Up next, the league’s up-and-coming centers. Or Unicorns, as they’re more commonly known.
Number Three: Karl-Anthony Towns
They build you up just to knock you down. Once lauded as the next Anthony Davis (or, in some cases of mild insanity, BETTER than Anthony Davis), Karl-Anthony Towns (21/12/4) is in an odd position. On one hand, he’s acknowledged as one of the most-skilled bigs the game has ever seen. On the other, he’s heir to James Harden’s title of “most-memorable defensive liability in the NBA”. Let’s have a look at his positives first.
KAT’s efficiency across a multitude of different play-type categories is dizzying:
Spot-up: 1.25 points-per-possession (94th percentile)
Transition: 1.29 points-per-possession (85th percentile)
Post-up: 1.02 points-per-possession (85th percentile)
Isolation: 1.01 points-per-possession (84th percentile)
Pick-and-roll man: 1.16 points-per-possession (69th percentile)
Towns can do it all. Pick-and-pop threes are tossed in like dimes into the ocean:
Defenders are understandably apprehensive about closing out hard. Towns can put the ball on the floor and attack close-outs with force. As a seven-footer, only Giannis and KD can attack with such fluidity:
The array of moves Karl-Anthony Towns can put on opposing defenders on any given night is dizzying. Post-up. Dribble-hand-off into corner three. Pick-and-roll dunk on a defenders head. Left hand. Right hand. Counters. Counters to counters. Watch him drive baseline on Lauri Markkanen, before spinning middle for the beautiful short-jumper:
One can argue, in today’s NBA*, a player with the ball in his hands is always going to have more value to an offense. Still, Towns’ is a superlative offensive talent.
*God, I hate how much I reference “the modern game” or “today’s NBA”. Inescapable. As a basketball world, we need some of that Clockwork Orange treatment. Bit of cerebral rearranging never hurt anyone, right?
Towns’ upcoming role
The shot attempts issue is a thorny one. Despite his aforementioned brilliance on the offensive end, KAT’s field-goal attempts per-game were shockingly low. Towns placed 56th in the league in field-goal attempts per-game (starters with at least 41 games played in 2017–18), getting up a paltry 14.3 shots nightly. Notable NBA dudes who ranked ahead of KAT in this particular category: Nikola Vucevic (14.7), Tim Hardaway Jr (15.1), TJ Warren (16.4, I mean, what the hell) and, most egregiously, teammate Andrew Wiggins (15.9).
Towns’ paucity of touches is even more glaring when looking at his efficiency. Pardon me, his all-time level efficiency. For perspective, only nine players in NBA history have put up more than 14 shots-per-game with an equal or better true-shooting than KAT’s mark of 64.6 percent last season. Of those nine players, Towns is the only center. KAT is also the only seven-foot player in NBA history to shoot 50/40/85 with at least one three-pointer made per-game. He is an offensive freak.
Critics will note that Towns often doesn’t demand the ball. Weak seals aren’t usually rewarded with a dish inside. Passivity certainly could be an issue. The degree to which Towns was responsible for his marginalized role on offense is an interesting question. I lean toward a 30/70 split in blame. The 30 percent is on Towns’ broad shoulders. Assert yourself. Demand the damn ball. The 70 percent? High-usage (and mostly inefficient) teammates sucking up shots and possessions quicker than Tony Montana could hoover blow in “Scarface”:
Defense
KAT’s offensive repertoire is beyond reproach. His defense, motor, and awareness, on the other hand, are problematic.
On paper, Towns looks good. Blessed with length, explosiveness a, d athleticism, all the “tools” analysts deem necessary are present. The problems lie in his mental approach. The hope was a coach like Tom Thibodeau could grind a defensive mindset into the young superstar. Alas.
Towns was embarrassed by Clint Capela in the playoffs. To characterize it any other way would be disingenuous. He scored 15.2 points-per-game on 12 shots, far below his regular season averages. The real bad look, however, came in the intangibles. Towns was out-worked and out-hustled at every turn.
The following clip had me cussing out shadows in my empty apartment, animated to a point where my dog seemed genuinely concerned for my well-being. Capela blocks Rose at the rim, turns and STILL beats Towns down the court for a lob:
Towns was solid in December. The Timberwolves posted a 104.5 defensive-rating (against an admittedly middling schedule). More important than the team’s rating (at least in the long term), was the sight of Towns demonstrably caring and staying dialled in for the whole month.
KAT gets more virulent criticism for his defense than Nikola Jokic because the perception is that he could defend better but chooses not too. True or not, that perception is going nowhere.
Cold in Minnesota
Jimmy Butler’s trade demand may have shaken up NBA twitter for a night, but it doesn’t change a lot for Towns’ longterm future. Butler never seemed long for Minnesota.
Here’s a more probing question: has the league passed Tom Thibodeau by? Stars today are more resistant to micromanagement, on and off the floor, than any other. Old-school “my way or the highway” coaches like Thibs are a dying breed. Screaming “ICE” on every possession down the floor makes for great TV, but at some point when is it just…exhausting.
Not every player is wired like Jimmy Butler. Or Thibs, for that matter. Which is not say Towns doesn’t care about winning. He just doesn’t appear to have that all-consuming psychopathy.
With Karl-Anthony Towns inking a long-term extension with Minnesota, Thibs might not be the long term answer for guys like Towns and Andrew Wiggins. Whether Towns can find the intensity and focus to play hard defense every night is the difference between a top-15 player and a top-5. He’s 22. Give him time.
