The Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts. The two teams had a previous game week 7 in Lucas Oil where the Bengals were shut out 27-0. The winner of this one will travel to Denver next weekend after the Baltimore Ravens dismantled the Steelers on Saturday night. Baltimore will now play New England following the win because of being the lower remaining seed (6). Both head coaches for this playoff bout (Chuck Pagano, Marvin Lewis) were previously Raven defensive coaches before landing head coaching jobs with their respective team. The Indy dome is often a tough place to play come playoff time so the Bengals will need to bring their A game in order to pull off the win. Below are some keys to the match-up.
WHY Cincinnati WILL WIN
1. Hue Jackson is one of the games best offensive coordinators
Hue Jackson’s play calling always seems to mystify defense. Jackson finds creative ways to get his players involved often incorporating multiple trick plays. Mohammed Sanu is more often than not used in these situations having already thrown a touchdown from the wide receiver position. Sanu is also 3/3 on passing attempts on the season throwing for 79 yards. Quarterback Andy Dalton is also seen running multiple boot legs or zone read runs that make defenses look silly the majority of the time. Offensive coordinator Jackson has also been a running back coach, quarterback coach, and head coach during his coaching career. Following his head coaching stint in Oakland Hue was hired to the staff following the 2011 season. Much of the Bengals offensive game plans were similar from last season under now Redskins head coach Jay Gruden. Hue Jackson has done a really great job of carrying out the foundation Jay Gruden left behind. Quarterback Andy Dalton will need to improve upon his career playoff QBR (56.2) for the Bengals to have any chance at an upset.
2. Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard could control the game
Cincinnati possesses two elite running backs in Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard. Hill a rookie from LSU has been a beast this season. Jeremy runs with a Marshawn Lynch style of running with no regard for mankind. Hill will absolutely be public enemy number one for the Indy defense. The Colts will also need to contain 3rd down back Giovanni Bernard. Gio came into the season as the starter after an impressive rookie season. Bernard, a second round pick out of North Carolina is a different kind of back than Hill using speed and finesse rather than pure strength. The two backs are simply the perfect thunder and lightning combination, something the Colts have certainly been game planning for all week. The Colts will deploy a 3-4 defense to counter the Bengal rushing attack. A defensive line lead by Arthur Jones and Corey Redding will have a big say in who eventually wins this contest. If the Bengals jump out to an early lead they could absolutely look to burn the clock giving Indianapolis less opportunities to score.
3. The secondary can give Andrew Luck serious problems
Cincinnati has a very deep corner back group including Leon Hall, Pacman Jones, Terrence Newman, Dre Kirkpatrick, and rookie Darqueze Denard. Interestingly enough each one of them were former first round picks. These corners are highly physical and have every ability to shut down the Colts passing attack. Free safety Reggie Nelson is also a man the Colts should pay attention to. Nelson was the man who ended Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell’s season after a devastating hit. The hard hitting safety will make the Colts think twice before coming over the middle in Nelson’s vicinity. Strong safety George Illoka will be responsible for blanketing a pair of dangerous tight ends. Indy will flash Dwyane Allen and Coby Fleener in multiple passing formations creating nightmares for defenses. If the tight ends can be effective in the passing game it could mean an early exit for the Bengals.
WHY Indianapolis WILL WIN
1. Andy Dalton plays for the other team
Andy Dalton has been simply awful in his three prior playoff games. Dalton is 0-3 having thrown six interceptions over the course of those games. He also has only one touchdown in 123 attempts in the postseason. Indy fans should feel grateful they have Andrew Luck as his presence could be enough alone to secure a W. Playoff struggles are nothing new for Bengal fans as they haven’t won a postseason game since 1990. Head Coach Marvin Lewis is in fact 0-5 in postseason play making it remarkable that he still has his job. Lewis has been the head man since 2003 and has yet to win a playoff game. Cincy will remain win less under Lewis unless Andy Dalton can put together a proficient game. Look for the running game to be called early and often to relieve some of the pressure off the red headed gunslinger.
2. A.J. Green has been ruled out
The A.J. Green absence may be a death sentence for the Bengals hopes on winning this game. Green is the teams best player and Andy Dalton’s most trusted target. Mohammed Sanu will now be promoted to the number one receiving role. Shut down corner Vontae Davis will likely take away any opportunity for Sanu to have an impactful game. Tight end Jermaine Gresham will likely have to step up his game in result of the Green injury. The 5th year pro from Oklahoma will need to convert on third down and in the red zone for the Bengals to win.
3. The passing game can put up points in a hurry
Andrew Luck and company are never out of it due to their ability to throw the ball for big yardage. The Colts lead the league in passing attempts mostly because of their horrendous rushing offense. In Indy’s case this is not necessarily a bad thing. Andrew Luck lead the NFL with 40 touchdowns. Pep Hamilton runs an explosive offense with endless weapons to throw to. T.Y. Hilton is the fastest of the bunch and can reel in a long touchdown at any point in the game. Should the Colts fall behind early they can easily throw their way back into the swing of things. If the Bengals fall behind early that means the running game could wind up being abandoned forcing more passing attempts from Andy Dalton. We all know how that could end for Cincinnati.
In conclusion, I expect the Colts to pull off the victory. I simply can not bring myself to pick Andy Dalton and neither should you. Some quarterbacks simply can not handle the pressure of post season play, Dalton appears to be one of those guys. The vacancy of A.J. Green makes this task to difficult to overcome for the Bengals. Look for the Colts to advance to a showdown with Denver next week. By no means will this be easy task, as Marvin Lewis and company will be motivated to end their postseason win less streak.
