AJ Griffin was good for Duke this year and at times saved them from losing a handful of games they had no business losing. In the end, Paolo Banchero, his teammate got most of the headlines along with guys like Mark Williams who anchored their defense, and their leader in junior Wendell Moore. Griffin who took a while to earn regular minutes while being eased in from a previous knee injury progressively improved as the season went on. His shooting was welcome on a team that often lacked shooting on the perimeter and he was at least passable on defense on a team who wasn’t always interested in playing it as a young team.
Griffin played in all 39 games and showed why he should be a lottery pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. Let’s explain why he’ll be selected in the first 14 picks.
Shooting
AJ Griffin’s ability to shoot the basketball is his calling card and is what will keep him on the floor at the next level. As a spot-up shooter, he’s got a release that could stand to speed up for the NBA but it’s efficient and he connects at a high rate, making 45% of his attempts in his lone year at Duke. More than half of his shots did come from three-point range this year with most of his twos coming from attacking closeouts as he’s more of a shooter than scorer at this time. His shooting stroke while a tad slow is smooth and easily repeatable hence the high percentage on over 150 attempts when everyone knew that was his bread and butter.
WE ARE ALL TIED UP
AJ Griffin from deep ? pic.twitter.com/hU9mDWZYxM
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 25, 2022
His length and height (6’6″) allow him comfortably shoot over those guarding him when given just a sliver of space. Griffin is good at finding space in the defense to allow teammates to find him easily, although the corner is where he loves to shoot most of his threes. He rarely shot anything in the mid-range area, instead preferring to get all the way to the hoop if his three-point look was taken away. He didn’t look bad on pull-up jump shots but it’s not something he gets to currently in his game.
IQ
You can see the IQ in the way Griffin moves and plays the game. As the son of a former NBA player, Adrian Griffin, it’s clear that he was schooled well by his dad and plays with complete calm and composure out there. You never see him make a ton of mistakes and he only committed 25 turnovers in 39 games this season. The IQ is a big reason why he was so often able to find areas to get open along the three-point line or was found at the basket on a well-timed cut behind his defender. You don’t always find freshmen who display the type of smarts that Griffin did while at Duke, that steadiness often comes in time as they mature at their school. With Griffin, it was always pretty apparent and was a reason why he continued to earn more and more trust after a slow start to the year working back from a knee injury. IQ is one of the reasons so one-and-done freshmen don’t ultimately stick in the league but Griffin should be just fine and see the floor quite early in his rookie year because of it.
Weakness: Quickness
With Griffin, it is the lack of foot speed and athleticism. Some of it may be due to injuries he suffered in high school which included a dislocated knee at one point. Now Griffin wasn’t an exceptional athlete, to begin with, but one has to think some of the injuries have affected him a bit. AJ Griffin isn’t a below-average athlete but the explosiveness isn’t something to write home about either. He competes hard on defense but there are instances when he struggles to stay in front of his man when they are quick. Will he be able to guard one through four? Unlikely but the competition level is there. It is also a hamperance when trying to drive past his defender where he’s not always quick enough to really blow by his man unless he’s attacking a closeout.
NBA Comparison: Saddiq Bey
Saadiq Bey is built pretty similarly to Griffin in terms of height and weight with both being three-and-D guys. Bey is a bit better on defense, coming from Villanova where defense and toughness are preached while Griffin is the better shooter of the two. Bey was an excellent shooter his last year at Villanova but it hasn’t quite translated at the NBA level. Griffin has more potential than Bey, entering the league at a younger age but Bey really came on in his second year averaging 16 points and 5 rebounds albeit on a bad Pistons team. One would think that Griffin would take that sort of production in his second year as he continues to develop his all-around game. Stylistically though, Griffin and Bey profile very similarly, and watching if AJ Griffin can become a souped-up version of Bey will be interesting to watch.
