Every season the NFL teaches us that what we think we know is wrong. This season, however, feels a little more clear-cut than others. Especially since there are a handful of teams openly throwing away this season with the hopes to build a championship contender down the line. That line of thinking is fairly new to the NFL. Heading into the first slate of games, here’s how we think the league aligns in the Week 1 edition of the 2019-20 NFL Power Rankings:
NFL Power Rankings, Tier 1: The favorites
1) Kansas City Chiefs
Sure, the Patriots could very easily occupy this top spot and we could do all the “they’re on top until someone knocks them off” routine, but given age, potential and route to the Super Bowl, it’s hard to argue against the Chiefs having the highest upside in the NFL. Which is why they get the top spot in the first edition of the NFL Power Rankings. There’s plenty of questions about their defense, but even an average defense makes them a contender.
2) New England Patriots
Tom Brady cannot beat time. His numbers have regressed ever-so-slowly but regressed, nonetheless. Eventually, it’ll be too much to make up for. However, Brady aside, New England is still one of the smartest-run teams in the league. Because of their roster makeup, they are routinely the most well-equipped teams to handle injuries that come with playing football. That depth advantage usually wins them an extra game or two. Plus, they should go 6-0 in AFC East games. There are two heavy favorites in the AFC and the Patriots are justifiably one of them.
3) Los Angeles Rams
Todd Gurley’s injury questions. Defenses learning how to play against Jared Goff. Despite making it to the Super Bowl last season, it sort of feels like they wheezed their way there. The Rams deserve the right to prove they have the answers, but there doesn’t seem to be quite as much optimism in L.A. right now as a year ago. Goff needs to make a leap in order for the team to do the same.
4) New Orleans Saints
This is a fork-in-the-road season for the Saints. While having a ton of talent, the roster is a little top-heavy in that an injury to Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, or Alvin Kamara could ruin not just the Saints’ offense, but their season. New Orleans is trying every trick in the book to field a contender while Brees is still putting pads on. And while it’s easy to get starstruck by the big-name Saints on your fantasy team, things could go south here. That being said, if they stay healthy there’s no reason to believe they can’t win the NFC.
NFL Power Rankings, Tier 2: Right there, but will need help and/or luck
5) Philadelphia Eagles
The downside of success in the NFL is that other teams pluck away at your roster and staff. That’s been true of the Eagles since they’re recent run of success. They’ve done a great job of replacing those pieces. But that’s am an awfully thin tightrope to walk. Still, though, this is a team that probably underachieved last year because of their injury situation. Expect a bounce back from the Eagles. They deserve to be in the top-five but they have a few things to prove in the first couple of weeks.
6) Pittsburgh Steelers
On paper, the Steelers lost a lot, right? Their departures may not mean as much as it seems though. Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are big names that are both gone but Bell sat out all last season and Pittsburgh still had a terrific running game led by James Conner. And Brown played at least a portion of last season at best disgruntled and upset with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and at worst had one foot out the door while the season was still going on and the Steelers were still in the playoff hunt. All of which is to say: the Steelers shouldn’t regress nearly as much as it seems, perhaps even play better without the drama. It’s a little jarring to see a roster without as much big-name power as in the past, but don’t be shocked if Pittsburgh is a Super Bowl contender.
7) Cleveland Browns
The weight of the NFL world is on the Cleveland Browns. This is a team that enters the season perhaps with higher expectations than the organization has had since it returned to Cleveland in 1999. Progress isn’t always perfectly linear, though. The franchise could have made all the right moves and still come away this season on the wrong side of .500. The Browns look really dangerous going in, but the NFL season has a way of wearing a team down, and Cleveland may not be all that well-equipped to deal with that. Making the playoffs is a reasonable goal for this squad, anything more is asking for the moon. It might take another year or two before the team can set its sights that high.
8) Dallas Cowboys
Getting Ezekiel Elliott signed single-handedly moved the Cowboys up three or four spots in this initial NFL Power Rankings. Don’t expect him to immediately set the world on fire though as he must work his way back into playing shape. That might not be a bad thing though, it may force Dallas to limit hit carries early on and manage his workload – something they should be doing in the early goings, anyway. Amari Cooper must play as well as he did last year and the team can’t afford for the defense to take a step back, although they’re young and should keep progressing.
NFL Power Rankings, Tier 3A: Starting to get a little longshot-y
9) Los Angeles Chargers
Not having Derwin James to start the season hurts the Chargers quite a bit; James was as good as any rookie defensive back has been in recent memory. There are a few teams that seem to be fool’s gold every year by suckering in a bunch of people into thinking they’re good. Los Angeles fits that profile over the past few seasons. We’re placing them (barely) inside the top-10 because they have enough talent to justify doing so. But at this point, everything will need to break their way for them to make it to the Super Bowl … or even to win the AFC West.
10) Green Bay Packers
In order to have a model for this season, the Packers only need to look about a hundred miles south. Green Bay will try to replicate what the Milwaukee Bucks did when they rid themselves of a coach (Jason Kidd) who overstayed his welcome, brought in a coach who dramatically modernized the offense, and propelled them to the best regular-season record in the league and an appearance in the conference championship game. We’ll find out soon how much of a hindrance Mike McCarthy was on this team, specifically last season. It could be a leap from a revamped defense, however, that sets the Packers up for a winning season. That’s a best-case scenario, though.
11) Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey is one of the most valuable weapons around the NFL. This team is almost exclusively dependent on the health of Cam Newton, though (and, to be fair, the health of Luke Keuchley, to a lesser extent). There are legit questions about Newton’s health. And it should make Panther fans nervous that their franchise quarterback will basically have to play himself healthy this season. Carolina is solid all around and a huge matchup problem for most of the league, but also in a tough division and virtually no room for error.
12) Chicago Bears
Chicago’s defense was cherry-picked from just enough to think that they’ll regress at least a little this season, especially early on. And they still don’t have anybody super trustworthy under center with Mitchell Trubisky. Combine that with a much tougher schedule than last year and it has the makings for a Bears team that aligns more with the NFC wild card fight than a team – like last year – that runs away with a division title.
NFL Power Rankings, Tier 3B: Somebody has to win the AFC South
13) Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis was a legitimate Super Bowl contender before Andrew Luck unexpectedly retired. In hindsight, maybe the Colts weren’t so blindsided by Luck’s decision and had just enough of an inkling something like this may happen that they sort of insulated themselves against such a move. They are no longer competitors to win a title this season, but they could be on to something, even with Jacoby Brissett at QB.
“Dearest friends — I hope this letter finds you all well. Life on the family farm is just as I remembered…”
—@CaptAndrewLuck pens a farewell address to his unit:https://t.co/QNFQLqExoV pic.twitter.com/WdXxpbAS9R
— The MMQB (@theMMQB) August 28, 2019
14) Houston Texans
Houston made a slew of trades heading into Week 1. Unfortunately for the result was that they created holes they didn’t have (like the one left by Jadeveon Clowney) in order to fill holes they did have – like a leaky offensive line. All that is well and good, but at the end of the day, this team may not be markedly better than last season, when a nine-game winning streak propelled them to an 11-5 record. However, they lost three of their last five, including their wild-card game to in-division Indianapolis. Houston’s path to an AFC South title got easier when Andrew Luck walked away, but they still have their hands full.
15) Jacksonville Jaguars
In going 5-11, the Jaguars finally had a season bad enough to rid themselves of Blake Bortles. Nick Foles figures to be a significant upgrade but this team may not be quite as good at other positions. Still, Jacksonville should be in the thick of the AFC South race now that Indy is no longer the obvious favorite.
NFL Power Rankings, Tier 4: They’ll make some noise before exiting quietly
16) Seattle Seahawks
Jadeveon Clowney helps offset the decline that was happening to Seattle’s defense. But the loss of Doug Baldwin doesn’t seem to be getting enough attention. He has far and away been the Seahawks’ second-most important offensive player behind Russell Wilson since Marshawn Lynch left. And they don’t have anybody that can pick up that slack, unless D.K. Metcalf is the real deal, but expect it to take the raw rookie a while to catch onto the NFL game.
17) Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta has some big-name, recognizable talent but for the most part, those names are getting rather long in the tooth by NFL standards. What was once a dynamic young core to the Falcons is now on the cusp of being over-the-hill and desperately trying to keep the window of opportunity pried open. There’s not much reason to think this year’s Falcons squad is meaningfully better than last year’s team that finished 7-9.
18) New York Jets
The Jets could play themselves into four relatively easy wins by playing in-division Miami and Buffalo twice apiece. That would put them four wins shy of finishing at .500. Which is both very doable for this team and would signify a meaningful step in the right direction for the organization.
19) Minnesota Vikings
Last offseason, the Vikings hitched their quarterback wagons to Kirk Cousins without any sort of alternative plan. Cousins is a league-average quarterback who doesn’t bring enough to the table to lead a team to a Super Bowl unless it’s with an otherworldly defense. Minnesota’s defense will be very good, but not great.
20) Buffalo Bills
Quarterback Josh Allen played really well down the stretch last season. By then, though, the Bills were soundly out of the postseason race. The Bills might surprise some people this year though if only because between Buffalo, Miami, and the Jets, somebody has to take second place in the AFC East.
21) Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is trying to rebuild its defense back into a powerhouse but that is quite a lot easier said than done. On offense, the Lamar Jackson experience has a long way to go before it shows capable of producing sustainable success in the league. Long story short: the Ravens have a lot to prove this season and some substantial obstacles in the way.
NFL Power Rankings, Tier 5: How did we get here?
22) San Francisco 49ers
At first, Jimmy Garoppolo was unbeatable. Then, Jimmy Garoppolo was very beatable. Now that the shine has worn off and the 49ers quarterback is coming off an ACL injury, the Garoppolo bandwagon is pretty empty. He may play pretty well this season but this is still a team that lacks players capable of making big plays on a consistent basis. That will cost them numerous games.
23) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jameis Winston is still holding down the quarterback spot here. But don’t expect much in the way of different results than in the past when the Buccaneers have struggled mightily with him under center. The offense might be a bit improved but they lack consistency on defense and need to develop an offensive weapon outside of Mike Evans.
24) Denver Broncos
Vic Fangio was a fine hire as head coach for Denver. But he’s a defensive coach and defense was already the strength of the team. Expect the Broncos to be a lopsided team this year. Which is to say: the defense will be consistently solid but the offense will rank among the worst in the league. Plus, being in a division with the Chiefs and Chargers clearly ahead of them in terms of talent and Denver adds up to a team with a third-place ceiling in their division.
25) Detroit Lions
This organization has tried to rebuild its team piece by piece, shunning a badly-needed total overhaul. On any given week, Detroit is dangerous enough to beat anybody, but on the season they have about as low a ceiling as a team can have.
26) Oakland Raiders
Oakland should be better in Jon Gruden’s second season. But they still stand to struggle a considerable amount considering they’re still depleted of talent as a result of last season’s roster teardown. And the superstar they do have – Antonio Brown – has already been a huge headache for the team and he hasn’t even taken an in-game snap yet.
27) Tennessee Titans
The defense has been a big reason why the Titans have remained competitive in the recent past. However, this season the offense may hit a new low, putting more pressure on the defense. Tennessee usually starts a season hot then falls back down to earth. They start with Cleveland in Week 1 but then catch Indianapolis at a good time in Week 2 as they enter their post-Andrew Luck era. A winning record last season brought on a tough schedule this year so expect the Titans to have more questions by the end of the season than answers.
NFL Power Rankings, Tier 6: How did we get here and how do we get back on track?
28) Washington Redskins
Washington might field one of the worst offenses in the league this season. But their defense might be good enough to win them enough games to keep them from getting a top-five pick in next season’s draft.
29) Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have the makings to be a fun, young team as they hand the keys of the organization over to quarterback Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. They have enough spark to keep a lot of games close but its fair to wonder if they have the moxie to be able to close games out late. Expect that aspect to be a chore this season.
30) New York Giants
There are a handful of players in the NFL that are capable of winning games by themselves. Saquon Barkley is one of them. However, Eli Manning is a statue at quarterback and the defense is trying to rebuild after dramatically underachieving the past few seasons. Plus, by nature of the modern game, the effect of a running back is capped. Barkley will get his numbers but the Giants won’t see much success in return.
31) Miami Dolphins
Not being last in this NFL Power Rankings list may be a surprise. But the fact that the Dolphins management is embracing tanking as much as any professional sports team has – or can – may actually work against them. There’s no replacing genuine desperation in sports. What Miami has is a roster full of no-name players desperate to prove themselves. That may actually win them a couple more games than the front office was prepared for. However, this is still a bad team by all measures.
32) Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati hung on to the core of a mediocre team long enough to see it become old, stale, and totally deficient of upside. The defense could be okay, but this team will struggle to score and has a quarterback controversy waiting to happen. They’ve deflected enough attention that they’re flying a bit under the radar as a candidate to be the league’s worst team, but make no mistake, this team won’t win many games in 2019. Which is why they find themselves all the way at the bottom of the NFL Power Rankings.
