We’re increasingly putting our trust not only in team records (contrary to the “You are what your record says you are” saying”) but also in point differential. Where those two things are at odds, skepticism lurks. Where it lines up? Affirmation of how good/bad a team really is becomes clearer. However, if there’s one takeaway from these NFL Power Rankings, it’s that the drop from the top-six to the rest of the pack has maybe never been more stark.
2018 NFL Power Rankings: Week 9; Tier 1: The Cream Rises to the Top (of Week 9)
1 Los Angeles Rams (8-0; Point Differential: +109)
The Rams survived what was perhaps their biggest test last weekend. Luckily, they weren’t put in a position where they had to stop Aaron Rodgers in the last two minutes thanks to a special teams fumble by the Packers. Had they lost, though, L.A. would still have been in the top spot. They’ve been the most dominating and impressive team this year. We’ll get a clear picture of how the top two NFC teams stack up when the Rams play the Saints this weekend.
2 Kansas City Chiefs (7-1; +85)
Kansas City is the only other team that would have a case to be “most dominate” this season. But for now, we’ll side with team records and point differential. That’s not to negate anything the Chiefs have done. They look like the clear AFC favorite, at least for now.
3 New Orleans Saints (6-1; +51)
The Saints are already a serious Super Bowl contender. But they can stake their claim in the “best team in the league” debate with a win over the Rams on Sunday. A loss wouldn’t result in any steep consequences though, as L.A. has disposed of every team put before them. All things considered, however, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see the Saints picked to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl by a lot of NFL pundits, whether they win or lose this week.
Tier 2: Can’t Complain Here
4 New England Patriots (6-2; +54)
When the Pats played the Chiefs, they showed they have a blueprint to beat K.C. However, New England might not be the more talented of the two teams. Still, Bill Belichick has this team right back in the thick of things.
Bill Belichick would have to lose 1,070 football games (66.875 seasons) …IN A ROW…to fall to the same losing percentage as Hue Jackson as a Head Coach.
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) October 22, 2018
5 Carolina Panthers (5-2; +26)
The Panthers might not be able to catch New Orleans for the NFC South title, but they have to chance to put more distance between themselves and the rest of the division this week against Tampa Bay.
6 Los Angeles Chargers (5-2; +32)
They might be the least-talked-about contender thus far.
Tier 3: The Void
This spot is being left blank in order to reiterate that there is no true tier three. Teams above this line are clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the league. The disparity can’t be understated.
Tier 4A: The Race for the AFC North
7 Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2-1; +32)
Admittedly, the number seven slot feels too high for a Steelers team that has underperformed for much of the year. But that says more about the drop off from six to seven than it does Pittsburgh’s status as a real contender. They’ve still got a ways to go to prove that’s the case.
8 Cincinnati Bengals (5-3; -16)
With the benefit of a Week 9 bye week, Cincy can sit back and watch what happens with the rest of the AFC North. Between Baltimore and Pittsburgh playing each other and Cleveland having to go up against Kansas City, the division could look significantly different next week and the Bengals stand to be the benefactor.
9 Baltimore Ravens (4-4; +60)
Even though we are nearing the home stretch of the season, it’s hard to call a game a must-win for a 4-4 team. But as tough as the AFC North is and with the Steelers on the slate this week, Week 9 is something close to a must-win for the Ravens.
Tier 4B: The Best of the Rest Outside the AFC North
10 Houston Texans (5-3; +30)
Deshaun Watson hasn’t been able to fly to games with the rest of the team due to an injury to his lung. Instead, the QB has to take a ride a bus around the country. I’m no doctor, but if he can’t fly because the altitude’s effect on his injury, is it fair to wonder if playing against the Broncos in Denver’s altitude might have a detrimental effect on his play?
11 Chicago Bears (4-3; +50)
A couple teams have gotten caught taking Buffalo for granted this season. Chicago can’t afford to. But even if they don’t, the Bills could end up being sneaky competitive. Or … it might end with a Bears blowout win. It largely depends on who’s healthy enough to play quarterback for the Bills.
12 Washington Football Team (5-2; +12)
Across the league, it feels like the NFC East and NFC North are the two divisions that are least likely to be won by the teams that currently are in first. A loss would put Washington at a completely fine 5-3. But it would give Dallas and Philadelphia another week to gain some ground. Washington obviously didn’t feel great about their situation – especially on defense – as they let go of a mid-round pick for HaHa Clinton-Dix.
13 Minnesota Vikings (4-3-1; +2)
14 Philadelphia Eagles (4-4; +22)
We’ll combine the Vikings and Eagles this week just to prove a point: Both of these teams were expected to contend for a Super Bowl birth this season. And rightly so, based on how they finished last season. But the Eagles look much more prepared to make a late-season run in 2018 since they play in a worse division and their point differential suggests they’re slightly better than their .500 record would have to believe.
Tier 5: On the Cusp … of Something (Either Good or Bad)
15 Seattle Seahawks (4-3; +40)
At one point it looked like 2018 was a doomed season for Seattle. But all credit to Russell Wilson for not allowing that to happen. There’s no room to let up, though, since the Seahawks play in the same division as the Rams. Meaning a wild-card is the ceiling here.
16 Green Bay Packers (3-3-1; +2)
Sunday night’s game against the Patriots is getting built up as Rodgers v Brady. But that grossly underrepresented the significance of the game in general. At least as far as Green Bay is concerned. A loss might not mean the Packers are out of the playoff race completely. But it would mean they’d have to come close to winning out to have a chance. It will also be interesting to see how the Packers respond after trading away a starting safety in HaHa Clinton-Dix and a rotational offensive player and kick returner with Ty Montgomery.
17 Tennessee Titans (3-4; -21)
Early on, the Titans showed an ability to win ugly. But then their luck ran out. Now it’s just ugly.
18 Dallas Cowboys (3-4; +17)
You know how there’s an argument that getting all the answers wrong on an SAT-like test might be harder to achieve than a perfect score? The thinking is that in order to get any answers right – even by chance – you’d almost have to know the right answers and choose not to answer correctly. Somehow, that feels analogous to Jason Garrett’s coaching tenure in Dallas.
Yearly reminder that Jason Garrett is Jeff Fisher.
Getting rid of Jeff Fisher unlocked it all for the Rams. Unlock it Cowboys. I’m begging you.
— Jeff Cavanaugh (@JC1053) October 30, 2018
Tier 6: The Clock is Ticking
19 Atlanta Falcons (3-4; -22)
Even considering it was known that the Falcons defense was their weakness, it still is mildly surprising to see a team with this much talent get outscored by more than three touchdowns through seven games.
20 Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5; -36)
There are examples all across the league proving momentum doesn’t carry over from one season to the next. But the Jags are the prime example. Their defense has taken a bit of a step back, but their already-mediocre-at-best offense has regressed massively.
21 Miami Dolphins (4-4; -45)
Before the season started, most Dolphin fans would have taken a 4-4 start. If you asked the same question after Week 3, the Miami faithful would have said a 4-4 record at this point would represent an epic failure. Well, here we are.
Afternoon Entertainment ?
Adam Gase argues with @ArmandoSalguero about Ryan Tannehill’s performance earlier this year.
Gase tells Armando he has no idea what he’s talking about.
(via: Periscope/Miami Dolphins) pic.twitter.com/qccYuXHc3O
— Andy Slater (@AndySlater) November 1, 2018
22 Detroit Lions (3-4; -15)
Detroit was a seller at the trade deadline. They parted ways with Golden Tate because getting something for a player who could leave a team that’s probably going nowhere anyway is a perfectly fine plan. But it begs the question: If the Lions are sellers and are looking out for their long-term future, how long is Matthew Stafford’s leash?
23 Cleveland Browns (2-5-1; -41)
Baker Mayfield’s first pro appearance seemed too good to be true. Turns out, it was. The rookie quarterback has reverted back to the expected roller coaster that most young QBs put their teams through. But at least a roller coaster has some highs, that’s a huge step up for the Browns organization. Maybe the mid-season head coaching change will have a positive influence on Mayfield. Or not.
#Browns interim HC Gregg Williams says since 2003, he’s “had 11 letters sent in to interview for head coaching jobs…Four of them I did not even have to show up. Just sign the contract and come.” Why never did? “The structure has to be correct.” As for CLE? “I like things here”
— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) November 1, 2018
Tier 7: Staring Down the Barrel
24 Denver Broncos (3-5; -6)
Denver hasn’t gotten much out of their last few drafts. Along with the quarterback play (and the two are inextricably intertwined), the lack of young talent is why the Broncos have continued to struggle since their Super Bowl win. And even when they appear to get a draft pick right – like Courtland Sutton – they can’t find enough playing time for him unless they make a move to open up room. That resulted in the deal to move Demaryius Thomas, who was Denver’s most dangerous offensive weapon. Sutton better be ready.
25 Indianapolis Colts (3-5; +18)
The Colts have quite impressively clawed their way back into the AFC South divisional race. Should the Texans slip up, Indy stands to be the best bet to take advantage since Tennessee and Jacksonville are both trending down.
26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4; -32)
That old saying “If you have two quarterbacks you don’t have any quarterbacks” comes to mind when thinking about this team. Sure, there are concerns all over their depth chart. But getting the (next?) QB right should be concerned far and away priority number one.
27 New York Jets (3-5; -8)
Though only New England may make the playoffs this season out of the AFC East, this week’s game against the Dolphins could mean more in regards to which team is next in line going forward. And the potential of being next in line going forward is about all the Jets have going for them these days.
Tier 8: Clean Up, Aisle These Teams!
28 New York Giants (1-7; -55)
They’re as bad as any team record-wise. But the point differential indicates there are a few teams worse. Still, not a great position for a team that has been perpetually stuck in win-now mode with a roster that just isn’t ready for those type of expectations.
29 Buffalo Bills (2-6; -113)
Josh Allen has shown some potential and signs that he may end up being a really good pro quarterback. But until he gets back to full health, this might be the worst QB situation in the NFL. And that is saying a lot.
30 Arizona Cardinals (2-6; -89)
Even though this team is in no position to make a push for the playoffs, the bye week could be huge for Arizona. A chance to step back and work on some things (especially in regards to Josh Rosen) could be a welcome opportunity to further his development and even expand the playbook going forward.
31 San Francisco 49ers (1-7; -63)
32 Oakland Raiders (1-6; -80)
The bottom two teams play each on Thursday night. It feels slightly weird to say, but winning might not be the best outcome for either team since the loser will have an undeniable lead getting the top pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.
Raiders and 49ers are a combined 2-13 (.133) this season – the worst combined win pct. in a prime-time game in Week 8 or later since the 1970 merger (min. 5 games).
But Raiders have best chance to get No. 1 pick in 2019 NFL Draft, per FPI, while 49ers have the 3rd-best chance: pic.twitter.com/NEPNsPbUdR
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 1, 2018
