It still feels very early to say we have a good feel for every NFL team at this point. Still, in a 16-game sport, two games is bordering on a meaningful sample size. We’re going to be a little stubborn with a couple teams coming off Week 2 losses, but more than that, this is more about how far to move the surprising teams thus far up in the NFL Power Rankings.
NFL Power Rankings: Week 3
Tier 1: The New Number 1
Los Angeles Rams (2-0)
This was probably pretty predictable. And also maybe should’ve happened last week, but you gotta give the champs their due, right? The Rams are the league’s deepest team and seem like they could take the Eagles blueprint from last year (quarterback on rookie contract surrounded by a couple playmakers and a solid offensive line combined with a dominating defense). L.A. might be able to even do a better version of it with what they have on the roster.
Tier 2: Still Lurking
New England Patriots (1-1)
It’s far from the most unusual thing for the Pats to have a semi-surprising loss in the first few weeks of the season. Last season they got ran off the field by the Chiefs in the opener, for example. So we’re not overreacting to the loss against a tough Jacksonville team. Plus, even at 1-1, would you really bet against New England winning the AFC at this point?
New #Patriots WR Josh Gordon had an MRI on his hamstring and I’m told it came out fine. That means… Gordon could play for New England in Week 3.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 17, 2018
Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
A lot of the same thinking with New England goes for Philadelphia. We expected them to get off to a slow start since they have impact players still working their way back to full health (Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery, specifically). While the loss to Tampa Bay raised some eyebrows, Wentz is on the verge of getting back into the lineup and with an upcoming schedule that includes the Colts, Titans, Vikings, and Giants, Philly should still be at 4-2 after six games. In a bad division, that puts them in a great position to cruise to the NFC East title and get everything in order for the postseason.
Kansas City Chiefs
It was another big week for Patrick Mahomes. But we’ve seen young quarterbacks catch lightning in a bottle before only to fall back down to earth … at least to some extent. It would be impossible for Mahomes to keep up with his current pace. And every week the Chiefs play is one more week defensive coordinators across the league get tape on K.C.’s QB. The big offensive output has also blinded many from the fact that their defense has been putrid. They deserve every bit of this high ranking, but the Chiefs are a really lopsided team. And that has to change if they want sustained success.
Minnesota Vikings (1-0-1)
Green Bay Packers (1-0-1)
The Vikings and Packers appear to be about as even as two division rivals can be at this point, as evidenced by their tie last Sunday. Both teams had multiple opportunities to win and both had instances where it looked like they gave the game away. They play different styles, but at the end of the day, these two teams look to have the same ceiling this season. Seeing how the top of the NFC North plays out should be fun.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0)
The Jags were able to close out New England in Week 2 for the win. That’s an accomplishment they couldn’t achieve last postseason. As satisfying a win as it is and as good as their defense can be, there’s already a few years’ worth of question marks around Blake Bortles and their new revamped receiving corps hasn’t shown much so far.
Tier 2.5: The NFC South
Carolina Panthers (1-1)
Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
New Orleans Saints (1-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
Obviously, Tampa Bay is the story of the NFL so far (Ryan Fitzpatrick, in particular). But New Orleans isn’t as bad as they’ve played so far, Atlanta can beat anybody on any given day, and Carolina is tough in their own right. We’re grouping them together because at this point all four teams on either on track or project as top-10(ish) worthy teams. The only thing that seems certain is that the NFC South is more of a toss-up than any division in the NFL.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is done with your Harvard stereotypes. pic.twitter.com/arCAyBZKi3
— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) September 16, 2018
Tier 3: Could Go in Either Direction
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1-1)
The good news for Steelers fans is that there’s only one thing to worry about this season. The bad news is that one thing to worry about is everything. It’s still likely they regroup to win the division, but it’s also not out of the question this is the season from hell in Pittsburgh. We picked up on that scent a little bit in our division preview, but we’re still not going all-in on that actually being the case. Still, with no signs of Le’Veon Bell, what appears to be a past-his-prime Ben Roethlisberger, and a tougher-to-get-involved-than-expected Antonio Brown (especially considering the first two conditions, it’s fair to question if this team has the depth to tread water.
Miami Dolphins (2-0)
The offense has settled on a really interesting way to use Ryan Tannehill. Miami runs tons of run/pass options to utilize Tannehill’s mobility and has gotten production not only from the players they needed it from but also from some unexpected places. Their defense also looks to be really sound with the emergence of Minkah Fitzpatrick roaming the back-end. The AFC was set up for one team to make an unexpected run at the playoffs. At this point, all signs point to the Dolphins being that team.
Dolphins on verge of being one win away from equaling Sports Illustrated’s predicted win total for Miami this year (3-13).
— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) September 16, 2018
Cincinnati Bengals (2-0)
It’s tough to gauge the Bengals. They’ve looked good thus far, but have won both games by identical 34-23 scores against the Ravens and Colts. Their schedule is about to get a lot tougher, though. With back-to-back NFC South opponents in the Panthers and Falcons (both on the road), we’re putting the Bengals in the middle of the pack and are eagerly awaiting to see them against better opponents. Regardless of what’s happening in Pittsburgh, it still looks like a tough road for Cincy to get the AFC North title.
Denver Broncos (2-0)
This is setting up for the Broncos to be 2018’s biggest schedule benefactor. They could go the entire season without really proving if they’re legitimately good or not. They have two wins already, play in Baltimore this week, and have remaining games against the Jets, Cardinals, Texans, 49ers, Browns, and Raiders. If they win those that’s nine wins just be cleaning up on most of the league’s bottom-feeders.
Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)
Despite the loss in the opener to the Chiefs plus playing the top-ranking team in these NFL Power Rankings this week, we still like the Chargers to make a run. Consider this, after Week 3, L.A.’s schedule is as follows: 49ers, Raiders, at Browns, Titans, at Seahawks, at Raiders, Broncos, Cardinals before the home stretch. That’s a nice run to stack up some wins. But do we totally trust them to take care of business over that span? Not really.
Tier 4: This Season Isn’t as Important as Next Season
Chicago Bears (1-1)
The Bears defense will keep games close, as they have in the first two weeks. However, there are still questions around the whether the offense (i.e.: Mitchell Trubisky) can take advantage. They have a great running back combo in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, but they’re at their most effective with the lead. Chicago is going to need to find more ways to win offensively.
Note to consider on #Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky’s struggles:
So many QBs over the years had 1 big college season, were billed as future 1st-rounders, then exposed as second-year starters, and got drafted on Day 3 where they belonged.
Trubisky went pro after 1 year as a starter.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) September 18, 2018
Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
The ‘Boys upcoming games are at Seattle, home for Detroit, at Houston. They could be sitting pretty at 4-1 when that run comes to a close. But that shouldn’t completely disguise the fact there are some big question marks here, especially offensively.
Washington Football Team (1-1)
The Week 1 win against the Cardinals is almost a throw-away, given that Arizona looks as bad as any team has in recent years. Week 2 they looked really bad against a poor Colts team. Being 1-1 is (sort of) a positive, but the schedule will get tougher and it’s unclear if this team will be able to handle it. They haven’t shown much thus far, but have a relatively good amount of talent.
San Francisco 49ers (1-1)
The upcoming schedule for the 49ers looks as tough as it gets. Sure, they have two games against Arizona and one against the New York Giants, but that’s about it as far as games that we could imperatively say San Francisco will be the favorites going in. The preseason hype for this team looks to have been premature. They’re set up well for the future, but not so much for the present.
Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
Scoring 47 in the opener doesn’t look so good given the context of what we know now. We don’t really like situations where it seems like a good portion of the fanbase is waiting for a change at quarterback. Plus, it’s unclear if the defense can achieve any level of the success we’ve become accustomed to seeing from a Ravens defense. We’re still projecting this team as being one that will pull out some unexpected wins but also suffer some surprising losses, putting them around the 7-9 mark by the end of the season.
Cleveland Browns (0-1-1)
Five wins would mean this is one of the best Cleveland football teams of the past ten years. We like them to get to that number, but not much more. In the context of the 2018 NFL season, that still puts them well below-average. But is it out of the question for this squad to be one of the more exciting 5-11 teams? Not at all.
Browns last win came 635 days ago, Dec. 24, 2016, when they beat the Chargers 20-17. The players that led Cleveland to victory that day included Robert Griffin III, Joe Thomas, Gary Barnidge, Terrelle Pryor, Corey Coleman and Joe Haden.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 20, 2018
New York Jets (1-1)
The Jets got some hype after a big Week 1 win but then didn’t do much in a 12-point effort in a loss to Miami. As with most young quarterbacks, it can be a roller coaster ride, especially early on. That’s a fair expectation for Sam Darnold, even as the future looks very bright for him. New York’s season exists almost exclusively to set up the franchise for future success. While no team likes admitting it, this is a season for moral wins, not actual wins.
Tier 5: Struggling Teams That Had High Expectations
Tennessee Titans (1-1)
The defense in Tennessee is really solid. But it doesn’t project to ascend to the level of being able to win games for this squad. And while Marcus Mariota continues to work his way back to the field, it might only be the matter of time before another setback occurs. That’s not a winning formula.
Seattle Seahawks (0-2)
We gave Seattle the benefit of the doubt going into the season. But we’re cutting bait. Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks are picking in the top ten of the next draft.
Houston Texans (0-2)
As tempting as it is to say that if anybody can manage to succeed behind a bad offensive line, it’d be Deshaun Watson, it’s still a good idea to have good protection for whoever the quarterback is. That has escaped the Texans. Further, their defense might have taken a bigger step back than anticipated. Every time this organization gets one thing right another thing goes wrong.
Two Punts, A Missed Field Goal and An Interception: The Houston Texans Story
— Shea Serrano (@SheaSerrano) September 16, 2018
New York Giants (0-2)
Saquon Barkley already feels like a Hall of Fame running back in-the-making. The downside though is he’s playing in an era when running backs are as replaceable as ever and whose on-field impact is as minimal as ever. Lots of talent at skill positions here, but it looks like the rest of the team might not be good enough to hold serve.
Tier 6: Not Going Anywhere
Indianapolis Colts (1-1)
Andrew Luck is good enough to win some games practically by himself. And with the construction of this team, he will have to.
Detroit Lions (0-2)
The Lions of recent memory are notorious for getting out to good starts then clinging to their postseason lives after a late-season collapse. At 0-2, time is already running out for this team to make a playoff run. In fact, they look more like they belong in the bottom handful of teams. Which is why they appear here in these Week 3 Power Rankings.
Oakland Raiders (0-2)
Derek Carr played really well in Week 2, going 29-32 for 288 yards and a touchdown. Which makes it all the more concerning that they still manage to lose to the Broncos. They play the upstart Dolphins this week, so that first win of new Gruden era will probably have to wait another week.
Tier 7: Can’t Overstate How Bad They Are
Arizona Cardinals (0-2)
Granted, the Cardinals were up against a great Rams defense in Week 2, but it was as bad an offensive performance as you’ll ever see an NFL team have. Even if the defense rounds out to end up a decent unit this year, it’s still a bottom-out season in Arizona.
The Arizona Cardinals lose 34-0.
They only managed 5 first downs and 137 total yards. The Cards committed 9 penalties and only ran *one* play on the Rams side of midfield… The last play of the game.
— Paul Gerke (@PaulGerke) September 16, 2018
Buffalo Bills (0-2)
Even as bad as the Bills have looked through two weeks, it only makes things worse when considering that their schedule is actually really tough (in part by virtue of making the playoffs last season). Projecting this team to go 0-16 in 2018 is a pretty easy argument to make.
