The Golden State Warriors and the San Antonio Spurs played in a controversial series last season, and they will meet again at the beginning of this post-season. The Warriors won three of the four games played between the two in the regular season, with the Spurs lone victory coming in the final game.
2018 NBA Playoffs: (2) Golden State Warriors vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs
Both the San Antonio Spurs and the Golden State Warriors suffered disrupted campaigns, and enter the post-season without a fully healthy roster. The Warriors will be without Stephen Curry for the first round, and the San Antonio Spurs at this moment in time, look set to be without Kawhi Leonard in the way they have been for most of the season.
The Warriors haven’t been without Curry for that long, so we should not make any long-term conclusions about this team, but the product without him has been worrying. Steve Kerr described their effort as ‘pathetic’ in a loss to the Indiana Pacers, and the Warriors have struggled to generate elite offense, which has, in turn, caused their defense to drop off. The Warriors went 4-6 without Curry and worryingly ranked 21st in net rating, with their only wins coming against Phoenix, Sacramento, and Oklahoma City.
If you are an NBA fan that chooses to go firmly on the ‘eye test’, then you would not have been too pleased with what you saw, as the Warriors offense looked thoroughly predictable with Kevin Durant being handed the reigns. The Warriors offense is largely built on the gravity that Steph Curry creates, with the majority of their action being on the perimeter. To illustrate this, the Warriors drive to the paint less than any other team, with 23 per game. The Cavaliers are 29th in drives per game, but they are still 10 drives ahead of the Warriors. If you go ten drives in the opposite direction, you get all the way to the Los Angeles Clippers in ninth place.
Kevin Durant is an elite player, but he does not create the same panic in defenses Steph Curry does, and the offensive scheme has become stagnant with him running the show and hasn’t really worked at all. The action is all perimeter based, but a solo Kevin Durant show really turns into isolation ball, as illustrated in a loss to the New Orleans Pelicans, where he turned the ball over twice in crunch time on attempted isolation plays.
This offense is not temporary, and Steve Kerr admitted in his post-game interview that the ball will be in Durant’s hands as much as possible as they ‘will do whatever they have to’ in order to win the game. This isn’t going to be a disastrous strategy, and a Durant led-offense is still an upgrade on what at least 20 NBA teams has, but it isn’t the type of play that the rest of the Warriors team is used to. The Warriors scheme is a read-and-react scheme which prioritizes perimeter shots over anything inside, but such a system is hard to implement with Kevin Durant running things.
They are in the middle of an offensive identity crisis, and the Spurs might be the worst team to have such a thing against.
The Spurs without Leonard have dropped off noticeably, and this was the first year that San Antonio failed to win 50 games since Gregg Popovich’s first season in 96-97. They have been carried by LaMarcus Aldridge, but the offense without Aldridge is worryingly bad. They are six points per 100 possessions better off offensively when Aldridge is on the court, and the offense turns stagnant when he isn’t there. The Spurs simply do not have any shot creators, with the majority of their guards being either too old, or defense-first type guards. Zach Lowe described the Spurs offense without Aldridge as ‘a bunch of nice-looking hand-offs that don’t actually go anywhere’.
The Spurs always spring surprises, their lineups are unpredictable, but you do wonder if LaMarcus Aldridge will be tamed by Draymond Green. The Warriors swingman loves to defend against physical bigs, and if Green locks down Aldridge, there is not much else to strike fear into the Warriors defense. The only saving grace the Spurs have is their depth, as they could quite easily go 11 deep if needed, and the potential that a fringe player such as Davis Bertans or Bryn Forbes steps up with a big performance is quite close to being a reality given the Spurs’ track record. However, trying to project offensive output outside of Aldridge is a very tough task.
Both of these teams have slightly different offensive identity problems, with the Warriors being more of a short-term one, but this could play into the Spurs’ hands. I believe the Spurs will make this a really tough series, but the Durant-led Warriors will eventually win the series in seven, while being pushed to their limits.
series schedule
(all time Eastern)
Game 1: Saturday 4/14, 3 PM at Golden State on ABC
Game 2: Monday 4/16, 10:30 PM at Golden State on TNT
Game 3: Thursday 4/19, 9:30 PM at San Antonio on TNT
Game 4: Sunday 4/22, 3:30 PM at San Antonio
(if necessary)
Game 5: Tuesday 4/24, TBD at Golden State
Game 6: Thursday 4/26, TBD at San Antonio
Game 7: Saturday 4/28, TBD at Golden State on TNT
