Star guard Damian Lillard and star big Anthony Davis will go toe-to-toe when the Portland Trail Blazers (49-33) battle the New Orleans Pelicans (48-34) in the first round of the NBA Playoffs beginning Saturday. The two clubs split the seasons series with two wins apiece.
2018 NBA Playoffs: (3) Portland Trail Blazers vs (6) New Orleans Pelicans
Portland, the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, and New Orleans, the No. 6 seed, both rode lengthy winning streaks in the second half of the season, which propelled them into the playoffs ahead of the likes of the Denver Nuggets (46-36) and Los Angeles Clippers (42-40).
Spanning from Feb. 14 to March 13, the Blazers rattled off 13 consecutive victories to vault from 31-26 to 44-26 and claim the third seed out West. They clinched their first Northwest Division crown since the 2014-15 season with a 102-93 win over the Utah Jazz on Wednesday, a victory that also secured the No. 3 seed — the team’s highest seed since 1999-2000. Meanwhile, the Pelicans notched 10 wins in a row from Feb. 10 to March 17, moving from 28-26 to 38-26 and reaching the postseason even without All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins, who ruptured his Achilles on January 26.
After ranking 11th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency last season, the Blazers flipped the script. They finished eighth in defensive efficiency — their highest placing since 1999-2000 — and 16th in offensive efficiency this season. The Pelicans, on the other hand, jumped from 26th in offensive efficiency (103.3) to ninth (107.7).
New Orleans runs a highly efficient screen-and-roll attack as it sits fourth in the league in points per possession (1.16) when the roll man attempts a shot. Portland counters with a stingy mark of 1.03 PPP against the roll man (sixth in the NBA) as it employs a drop defensive coverage, negating easy feeds to the big down low. The Pelicans will either solve the Blazers’ scheme or be scrambling for answers as they’re heavily reliant on shots in the paint, ranking fifth in attempts per game inside the restricted area (29.5) and sixth in field goal percentage (65 percent).
Davis, who played only five minutes in New Orleans’ first game against Portland due to injury and missed the entirety of the second game, feasted when healthy against the Blazers. In two healthy contests, Davis averaged 36 points (66 percent shooting), 11.5 rebounds, four blocks, three assists and one steal. The frontcourt tandem of Al-Farouq Aminu and Jusuf Nurkic will be crucial defensively against Davis. Their job will not so much be shutting Davis down, but in making sure he doesn’t go nuclear and drag New Orleans to a series win on his own. In particularly, Aminu, who’s struggled against Davis this season, but is a strong post defender, will be vital in forcing the All-Star big into difficult, laboring shots.
Lillard, the star in Portland’s corner, counters Davis with averages of 26.5 points, 7.3 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 2.3 steals in four games against New Orleans this season — albeit on less-than-stellar shooting splits of .427/.256/.778. Those subpar shooting numbers can largely be attributed to Jrue Holiday, who’s enjoyed a renaissance year.
After a string of injury-riddled campaigns, the ninth-year pro out of UCLA played in 81 games, his most since the 2010-11 season, and emerged as a near lock for an NBA All-Defensive Team spot at the guard position. Furthermore, he posted career highs in points per game (19.0), field goal percentage (49.4), effective field goal percentage (54.3) and true shooting percentage (57.0). He’ll likely be matched up with Lillard, leaving E’Twaun Moore, a markedly worse defender, to contain C.J. McCollum. McCollum’s ability (or inability) to score efficiently will be a development worth following.
Portland boasts a deeper, more diverse bevy of reserves at its disposal. Ed Davis’ health (36 missed games last year) has quietly been a chief factor in the team’s resurgent season as he’s been one of the league’s most underrated bench bigs with relentless rebounding and energy; Shabazz Napier provides a scoring and playmaking pop, although his shooting has cooled in the second half and his defense remains a liability; Zach Collins and Pat Connaughton, while both inconsistent, have flashed contributions with interior/wing defense and the occasional 3-pointer.
For the Pelicans, Darius Miller is a marksman from deep (41.1 percent on 4.4 attempts per game) while Ian Clark, signed last offseason to be a shooter off the bench, has struggled to the tune of 31.8 percent beyond the arc in his first year with New Orleans. In 12 games back from injury, Solomon Hill has produced just 2.4 points, 3.0 rebounds and 1.8 assists on grisly .268/.190/.500 shooting splits in 15.6 minutes per night, all of which have bred a -2.9 net rating.
With New Orleans only offering one truly positively impactful player off the bench, minutes with Davis/Holiday and Lillard/McCollum riding the pine will be important to monitor, given the stark advantage Portland seemingly holds with its reserves.
Since Cousins went down with injury, New Orleans owns the seventh-best net rating in the league at plus-3.1 while Portland owns the sixth-best at plus-3.7, meaning that neither team should expect to coast to the second round. In a series between two evenly matched clubs, it’s easy to bet on the team with homecourt advantage, cohesive postseason experience and the better coach. Portland checks all of those boxes. It’ll likely go seven, but the Rip City faithful — lauded one of the league’s best fanbases — should be able to power the Blazers to a second-round series.
Series Schedule
(all times Eastern)
Game 1: Saturday 4/14, 10:30 PM in Portland on ESPN
Game 2: Tuesday 4/17, 10:30 PM in Portland on TNT
Game 3: Thursday 4/19, 9 PM in New Orleans on NBA TV
Game 4: Saturday 4/21, 5 PM in New Orleans on TNT
(if necessary)
Game 5: Tuesday 4/24, TBD in Portland
Game 6: Thursday 4/26, TBD in New Orleans
Game 7: Saturday 4/28, TBD in Portland on TNT
