Before diving into the outlook for this season, we must address the elephant in the room. Virginia’s loss in the NCAA Tournament to 16th seeded UMBC will be a key source of motivation for this year’s unit. The Virginia Cavaliers suffered national embarrassment last March after becoming the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed in NCAA Tournament history. They weren’t just any 1 seed, Virginia looked the best team in the country heading into March.
Tony Bennett’s squad ended the regular season with just two losses and a 17-1 record in ACC play. In usual Bennett fashion, Virginia controlled the tempo in games with their suffocating pack line defense. This resulted in regular dominant performances on the way to a seemingly easy ACC title in both the season and tournament.
Virginia finished the campaign at 31-3 (17-1) despite scoring less than 70 points per game. They allowed a nation-best 54 PPG and scored roughly 67 PPG themselves. As a testament to their pace domination, Tony Bennett’s squad also allowed the least amount of field goal attempts to opposing teams. They set the tone with a patient, suffocating pack-line defense and very rarely pushed the ball in transition. Rather, Virginia would rely on off-ball movement on offense to patiently wait on a great shot to come available.
Key Returners
- Kyle Guy
- Ty Jerome
- De’Andre Hunter
- Jack Salt
Tony Bennett returns three starters as well as possibly their best all-around player and reigning ACC Sixth Man of the Year De’Andre Hunter. Leading scorer Kyle Guy will be back on campus for his junior year. Guy averaged 14 PPG while shooting over 39% from deep. Offensively, the Cavaliers rely on Guy to be the focal point and his high-level ability to create his own offense late in the shot clock proves invaluable. Ty Jerome, the primary ballhandler, sets the tempo and controls the game. Jerome features on the Bob Cousy Preseason Watch List for his ability to control the game on both ends. Setting the defensive tone for the pack-line defense at the point of attack while being able to facilitate ball movement on the other end in tune with their pace makes Jerome arguably the most important player on the team.
De’Andre Hunter, a lottery-level NBA prospect, is slated for a major breakout. Hunter only played 20 minutes per game last year but had a usage percentage of 25.7%. Drawing comparisons to Kawhi Leonard, look for Hunter to get All-American buzz throughout the season. Jack Salt, their sturdy 6-foot-10 center, will be tasked with protecting the paint. By no means is Salt a stat sheet-stuffer, but he plays his enforcer role and will provide senior experience.
Key Losses
- Devon Hall
- Isaiah Wilkins
Virginia loses two important players including reigning ACC Defensive Player of the Year Isaiah Wilkins. Wilkins did much of the dirty work for the Cavaliers, leading the team in rebounds while often guarding the opposing team’s best frontcourt player. Fortunately, it seems that Tony Bennett produces quality defenders in a lab, so it seems reasonable that other players can replace Wilkins’ defensive impact. Devon Hall leaves as the team’s second-leading scorer and top 3-point shooter. A 3-and-D specialist, Hall will be missed for his elite two-way impact.
Key Newcomers
- Braxton Key*
- Francisco Caffaro
This area proves to be the most concerning aspect of Virginia’s outlook. Braxton Key is transferring from Alabama but has not graduated. However, he has applied for a family hardship waiver due to a close family member in ailing health. At the time of this writing, though, Key has not gotten the waiver. Adding Key changes the complexion of this unit, providing another reliable offensive talent on the wing. Without Key, Tony Bennett only brings in one 4-star player. Francisco Caffaro is a skilled 7-foot center from Argentina. Caffaro will add some much-needed size and energy in reserve minutes off the bench.
Projected Starting Five
- Ty Jerome
- Kyle Guy
- De’Andre Hunter
- Mamadi Diakite
- Jack Salt
Season Outlook
The Virginia Cavaliers will almost certainly have three players on national award watch lists and on All-ACC teams. Returning some of the best talents in the conference, Tony Bennett has his squad primed to compete for another ACC title.
Virginia will be amongst the best defenses in the nation yet again under Bennett and could even improve offensively. Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy will control the pace, keeping the game in the half-court confines. The most understated value this squad, and it starts with their returners, is the team discipline. This team’s veterans understand the defensive discipline needed for the pack-line to flourish. Virginia doesn’t jump out in passing lanes or force a lot of turnovers, but they suffocate the ballhandler and stand patient off the ball. There are three rising sophomores who played less than 10 MPG last year- that will now feature in more prominent roles. If these young players can display Virginia-standard discipline, the Cavaliers could have the quality of depth to make a national run.
When you return three of your four best offensive players, you are on track to improve on that end of the floor. In De’Andre Hunter’s case, he is slated for a major increase in minutes and responsibility, allowing him to display an even higher level of offensive prowess. With double-digit scorers Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome back, Virginia’s backcourt will likely be the best in the ACC on both sides of the ball. Tracking the jumps those two players made from their freshmen to sophomore years, they look poised to draw national buzz as they enter their junior season.
Record Prediction 26-4 (14-4)
Virginia will face some minor tests in their non-conference slate this year but have not exactly scheduled a gauntlet. The schedule is highlighted by a trip to the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, however, the field is not quite as good as you would expect. To go along with that, the Cavaliers will face Maryland in the ACC/Big Ten challenge, which could be an opportunity for a quadrant 1 win for Virginia. They will also face VCU and South Carolina to round out the more competitive fixtures in their non-conference slate.
On the conference side of things, Virginia will be looking to follow-up on their 17-1 ACC record. Virginia will be among the best teams in the conference and should compete for the crown up until the very end. They will be tested, though. Tony Bennett’s squad faces Duke and Virginia Tech twice while also taking a trip down to Chapel Hill for a date with the Tarheels. The ACC schedule is always a juggernaut, so I would expect a step back from last season’s success. 14-4 seems like a reasonable expectation for a Virginia team who should be in for another dominant year.
