2017 NBA Playoffs Preview
In the first round of this year’s playoffs, James Harden and the Houston Rockets trounced MVP-favorite Russell Westbrook and his Oklahoma City Thunder in five games. In the second round, Harden will face another MVP-candidate in Kawhi Leonard who has a much stronger supporting cast than OKC. Both San Antonio and Houston have championship caliber rosters and will fight to stay alive in what should be an entertaining series.
San Antonio Keys to the Series
San Antonio’s biggest strength is their lock-down defense. This season the Spurs allowed only 98.1 points per game, good for second-best in the league. The defense has proven that they’re on the top level, but facing the Rockets in a best-of-7 series will put that defense to the test. Houston’s offense is as potent as they come.
Kawhi Leonard looked other-worldly at times against the Grizzlies last round, and he’ll have to keep that up if that Spurs want to advance. Harden has great counting stats, but Kawhi is elite on both sides of the ball, and he has the ability to impact the game in ways Harden cannot. It may be a too ask of the young star to lead his team to the Western Conference Finals by being the best player on both ends of the court, but that may be what it takes to win.
Another key advantage for the Spurs is their experience. The Spurs have 14 championships combined among players on their roster. These players have been here, and know what it takes to move on.
San Antonio Weaknesses
Remember that time in 2012 when Popovich sat Tim Duncan, because he was “old?” Yeah, their roster hasn’t gotten much younger since then. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Pau Gasol, and David Lee, the youngest of which is 33, are all likely to play heavy minutes.
The playoffs can be absolutely grueling and older bodies often don’t hold up well. It may be this round or it may be the next, but the brutal schedule of the playoffs will catch up to these players sooner or later. The Rocket’s are a young and athletic team and fatigue may spell a real problem for San Antonio.
Houston Keys to the Series
Houston just finished the best 3-point-shooting season of all time, so you can bet that they’ll be looking for the three ball all series long. The problem is that San Antonio’s perimeter defense was top-5 this year. That won’t deter Houston from shooting, but they’ll need to keep making them to have a chance at the series. Harden will score at an efficient rate no matter who he plays, but players like Eric Gordon, Lou Williams, Ryan Anderson, and Trevor Ariza will need to shoot at a decent clip despite air-tight defense. They’ve shown the capability to do just that, but consistency over a series is key.
The Rockets are also an elite team at getting to the line. They finished first in the league with 26.5 attempts per game. This creates a huge advantage by giving Houston free points, but it also helps by getting the opposing team in foul trouble. Kawhi will likely be guarding Harden for most of the game, and if Harden can pump fake his way into drawing early fouls on Kawhi, the Rockets will be in a good spot.
Houston Weaknesses
The Rockets’ defense is pretty bad. When Dwight Howard left Houston last summer, the front office decided to go all in on offense. This was punctuated with the hiring of Mike D’Antoni, and the signing of Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, and Nene. The plan worked as their offense is deadly, but it came at a great price. Houston gave up an abysmal 109 points per game this season. The fact that they’re still a contender while giving up such a large amount of points is incredible, but a high-powered defense and extremely efficient offense like San Antonio might be the perfect combination to take them down.
The biggest problem with Houston’s defense is that they have no one to stop Kawhi Leonard. Trevor Ariza will be lining up across from Leonard, but he’s not exactly known for his defensive prowess. Kawhi is a superstar who has consistently risen to the occasion in clutch situations. If a game is coming down to the wire, there is no lock down defender they can rely on to deny him from scoring. Patrick Beverley is by far their best defender, but Kawhi was a significant height advantage on Beverley. This could spell huge trouble for the Rockets.
X-Factors
The biggest X-Factors in this series are the starting point guards. Both are capable of extremely high-level play and both will need to be on top of their game to give their team the advantage.
Patrick Beverley was stellar for Houston last round against OKC and if he can continue that level of play they’ll be hard to beat. His defense is extremely important to Houston as they have no other consistent wing defenders on the roster. However, to go along with the top-level defense, Beverley’s shooting was superb last round. He shot over 60% from the field in 4 out of 6 games while averaging double-digit points.
Tony Parker is a four-time champion who knows how to get it done. Over the past few years, Parker’s production has gone down significantly as his age progresses, but he always knows how to turn up for the playoffs. Last round Parker averaged the second-most points and assists on his team and shot extremely efficiently. Parker’s age makes him a little slow on the defense end but if he can continue his high production on the offensive end and keep Beverley occupied the Spurs will be extremely happy with his production.
Prediction
Rockets in 7
This is a really tough call. These are two of the very few true title contenders and it could be anyone’s series. When it comes to Kawhi vs Harden, this year James has just been a little bit better and that should give them the edge.
