Who thought Giannis Antetokounmpo would win the Most Improved Player award last season?
Coming off a campaign averaging 16.9 points and 7.7 rebounds, nobody expected the Greek Freak to ascend to new heights of athleticism and defensive impact. But he did, and with a net rating of 12, he deserved every bit of that Most Improved Player award. The jump he took from above average starter to bonafide superstar made him earn the honor more than any player in recent memory.
The last five Most Improved Player Award recipients are all currently All-Star-level players, or close to it. Giannis, CJ McCollum, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic and Paul George is one heck of a group to be included in. Who among the league’s less proven players has a chance to make that leap this season? Let’s explore some options.
Rodney Hood – Utah Jazz
2015-16 Rodney Hood was a force to be reckoned with. 14.5 points per game as a sophomore is nothing to scoff at and Hood did it on a solid 54.2 percent true shooting.
He took a step back in scoring last season, though this drop-off was largely due to injuries. He did still, however, improve his shooting percentage from 3-point range.
Now, with Gordon Hayward gone from Utah, Hood is ready to rampage. In Hood’s minutes without Hayward last year, he shined brighter than you would ever imagine. His usage rate in these situations was 28.2 percent and his true shooting percentage was an incredible 57.1 percent. The offense ran through Hood and he was able to make it work well.
Hood’s offensive rating when he shared the court with Hayward was 105.9. When Hood played without Hayward, that number jumped up to 108.1. He kept the offense alive when his superstar teammate sat and now it’s his turn to be the go-to guy.
In the Jazz’s first six contests of the season, Hood scored 105 points, good for 17.5 points per game. Hayward did not play in any of these games. He was able to get in the lane and create for himself and others. With the ball here, he navigates the pick and roll and gets in the lane for a floater:
His gravity attacking the rim, because of that floater, makes him a dangerous creator as well. When the defense crashes on him while he is driving to the basket, he is able to get it to Gobert:
If Hood increases his usage from his 22.9 percent of last year to Hayward’s 27.6 percent, his stats will take a natural leap. Assuming his per game figures increase by a proportional amount, Hood is due for averages of 15.3 points and 4.1 rebounds this season. If he improves any facet of his game, those numbers could jump even higher, so watch out for the former Duke Blue Devil this year.
Norman Powell – Toronto Raptors
What Norman Powell has going for him in the race for Most Improved Player is an expected increase in playing time.
His career high in minutes played is only 18 minutes per game. With DeMarre Carroll, Terrance Ross and PJ Tucker out of Toronto, Powell should see that minutes per night number increase considerably. Thankfully, “Norm” is accustomed to the spotlight.
He played over 30 minutes in 12 games last season. In those games, he shot 53 percent from the field and 39 percent from deep. This led to averages of 17.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game. Most importantly, he was a +60 in these games, showing how much he contributed to winning basketball.
You can see that impact here, as he grabs the steal and goes coast to coast for the layup between two defenders:
That steal you saw is also a testament to his defense. He averaged 1.4 steals per 36 minutes and has always been known for his tenacity on that end. Being effective on both ends of the floor makes Powell very dangerous and someone to watch out for this upcoming season.
Tobias Harris – Detroit Pistons
If you don’t pay close attention to the Pistons, you may not know exactly how good Tobias Harris is.
Only 17 players in the league averaged at least 16.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game on nearly 57 percent true shooting.
Tobias Harris was one of them.
He spots holes in the defense and attacks them with an unmatched predatory instinct:
His compulsion to be in the right place on the court significantly helps the Pistons. When Harris was on the court, the Pistons had an even plus/minus. When he sat, they were a -1.1 per 100 possessions. The team also had a shooting percentage 3.2 percent higher when Harris was on the court, showing how much he helped his teammates succeed on offense. He sets a screen here before drilling the three when his matchup collapses to force a pass:
That versatility, to be both a solid screener and spread the floor to make the offense click, is what makes Harris so dangerous on the wings.
With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope out the door in Detroit, Harris’ role on the wing should expand. The Pistons had a net rating of +2.4 with Harris on the court and Caldwell-Pope off while the defense was almost a full 10 points per 100 possessions better. When they played together, that rating fell to -3.3.
Now, Harris will have his time to shine on Detriot’s flanks. Can he make the most of his opportunity and be one of the most improved players in the league? Who knows, but he has a great opportunity.
Myles Turner – Indiana Pacers
With Paul George gone, there’s a new sheriff in Indiana. Myles Turner has been given the keys to the station and he has all the control of the franchise he could have ever wanted.
If you don’t know how exciting he can be on the court, watch this:
Turner is going to take the league by storm. The term “unicorn” describes players with an uncanny combination of skills; Kristaps Porzingis and Karl Anthony-Towns are two examples. Turner should be included in that group.
Only 6 other players had better efficiency while scoring 14.5 points per game and grabbing 7.3 rebounds per game. Their names? LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Karl Anthony-Towns, Nikola Jokic and Hassan Whiteside.
That is an elite company.
Now, like many other players already examined, Turner is being thrown into a new role. He already has discernible skills that most franchises dream of acquiring and he is only 21 years old.
Focusing on Turner’s minutes without Paul George highlight how good he can be as the No. 1 option in an offense. In these situations, he has an astounding 60.1 true shooting percentage and shot 67.3 percent at the rim.
Incredible.
His combination of height and shooting make him nearly impossible to guard. Marc Gasol stops the roll possibility on this screen action, so Turner just pops out and nails a jumper instead:
How are you supposed to stop that play?
It’s a challenge and that is why Myles Turner has a huge opportunity to be one of the most improved players in the league this season in an expanded role.
Justise Winslow – Miami Heat
Justise Winslow had a rather unfortunate injury last season. In the 18 games he played before getting hurt, he had increased his per game scoring, rebounding, assists and steals while maintaining the same number of blocks from the year prior.
Then, it all ended abruptly when he tore his right labrum. Now, Winslow has a chip on his shoulder heading into the 2017-18 season.
Winslow is a far better player on the less glamorous end of the floor in contrast to his offensive abilities. He was fourth on the Heat roster in defensive box-plus/minus, excellent for a 20-year-old, and was second in steals per 36 minutes.
He is a master of jumping in passing lanes. Russell Westbrook thinks he has an easy assist on the fast break, but Winslow says otherwise:
That kind of anticipation takes years for some players to accrue. Winslow has it down and he can’t even legally enter a bar in some states.
For Winslow to win the award, he will need to take steps forward on the offensive end as his shooting percentages leave a lot to be desired. Thankfully, it looks like Winslow has nowhere to go but up; he averaged a career low in shooting from inside and outside the 3-point arc, as well as at the charity stripe, last season.
If he can put shots in the basket, like he did at Duke, Winslow will be a force on the hardwood. There is little reason to believe he can’t make this leap as he shot over 40 percent from deep in college, the question is: when is he going to do it?
Maybe it will be this year. He has the technique and skills to knock it down. He showcases that skill off the dribble with this tough shot:
If he can knock down more shots like that, given his defensive skills, Winslow will be one of the most effective players in the league. That improvement, if it happens, will give him a great chance of being crowned the league’s most improved player.
It’s difficult to project who will win this award as the winner sometimes comes out of absolutely nowhere and surprises everyone. But if you made me bet right now, one of these five guys would be my prediction for the 2017-18 NBA Most Improved Player Award.
