2016 NFC Divisional Playoff Preview: Seattle At Carolina
Sunday, January 17th 2016, 1 ET (Fox)
Online: Fox Sports Go
Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews
The second NFC Divisional playoff game is an exciting one between the 10-6 Seattle Seahawks and the 15-1 Carolina Panthers. The winner of the game will play the Arizona Cardinals in the conference championship game. Carolina is currently a narrow 2.5-point home favorite. Let’s take a look at some reasons why each team can win.
Why Seattle Will Win:
- Russell Wilson Gives Seattle The Edge
Cool, calm, and collected are the three words that best describe Wilson. This man simply does not fold under pressure. Down 9-0 last week against the Vikings when all hope seemed lost Wilson lead Seattle to a victory in the 4th quarter. Wilson is also 4-1 against Cam Newton in his career. Panthers quarterback Cam Newton may have been the leagues MVP this past season but its hard to argue you trust him more than Wilson in these types of moments. It appears this may be the changing of the guard as we know it as the Cam Newton/Russell Wilson rivalry may receive more attention than the Peyton Manning/Tom Brady rivalry anymore.
- Coaching Will Be The Difference
Pete Carroll has been here before, not only in the NFL but in college as well. Panthers coach Ron Rivera simply has not only achieving one postseason win last year. Seattle will surely be on the lookout for revenge after losing to Carolina at home this season after a late touchdown to Greg Olsen became the difference. Not only is Carroll the more experience coached he is also more reliable. Ron Rivera is known as Riverboat Ron for a reason. He sort of reminds me of that guy at the blackjack table who messes everything up but sometimes it works out in your favor so you don’t say anything to him. On previous track record these two teams have meet in the postseason before with their current coaching regimes. Seattle defeated Carolina in the postseason 31-17 a year ago. This time they will have to get the job done on the road. Seattle is also expected to get a healthy Marshawn Lynch this week.
- 3. The Analytics L<3VE Seattle
Analytics: the systematic computational analysis of data or statistics.
Whether you are a fan of the analytic phenomenon or not they are essential in today’s sports world. The numbers often don’t lie and the numbers absolutely love the Seahawks. According to Football Outsiders this Seattle team is one of the best of all time.
The first-ever DVOA Championship Game turned into a blowout to rival the worst early-’90s Super Bowls. In fact, thanks to the high opponent adjustments for playing Arizona, Seattle earned 115.7% DVOA for its Week 17 blowout victory, the best single-game DVOA rating of the entire year. That game made Seattle the clear No. 1 team for the entire year with 38.0% DVOA, ten percentage points ahead of the rest of the league. Arizona fell behind Cincinnati, which finishes No. 2 for the season at 27.9% DVOA.
Seattle’s big win gives the Seahawks four straight seasons on top of our ratings, which no other team has ever done. It even launches the 2015 Seahawks into the all-time top ten, right behind the 2012 and 2013 Seahawks but ahead of the 2014 Seahawks.
The gap between Seattle and Cincinnati ends up as the fifth-highest gap in DVOA ever measured between the top two teams. Four other years have had a gap of at least ten percentage points:
BEST TOTAL DVOA, 1989-2015 Year Team DVOA W-L OFF Rk DEF Rk ST Rk 1991 WAS 56.9% 14-2 27.2% 1 -21.1% 3 8.6% 1 2007 NE 52.9% 16-0 43.5% 1 -5.8% 11 3.6% 7 2010 NE 44.6% 14-2 42.2% 1 2.3% 21 4.7% 8 1996 GB 42.0% 13-3 15.2% 3 -19.3% 1 7.4% 2 2013 SEA 40.0% 13-3 9.4% 7 -25.9% 1 4.7% 5 1995 SF 40.0% 11-5 18.6% 5 -23.7% 1 -2.2% 22 2012 SEA 38.7% 11-5 18.5% 4 -14.5% 2 5.7% 3 2015 SEA 38.0% 10-6 18.5% 2 -15.2% 4 4.2% 3 2004 PIT 37.6% 15-1 16.3% 8 -18.9% 3 2.4% 10 2012 DEN 36.5% 13-3 22.1% 2 -13.8% 5 0.6% 13 1989 SF 36.0% 14-2 26.2% 1 -11.5% 5 -1.7% 21 2010 PIT 35.4% 12-4 14.3% 5 -20.7% 1 0.4% 16
BEST WEIGHTED DVOA AT END OF REGULAR SEASON, 1989-2015 Year Team W-L DVOA Rk WEI Rk Playoffs 2010 NE 14-2 44.6% 1 54.3% 1 Lost Div Round 1991 WAS 14-2 56.9% 1 52.4% 1 Won Super Bowl 2015 SEA 10-6 38.0% 1 51.1% 1 — 2012 SEA 11-5 38.7% 1 47.1% 1 Lost Div Round 2013 SEA 13-3 40.0% 1 43.7% 1 Won Super Bowl 1989 SF 14-2 36.0% 1 42.9% 1 Won Super Bowl 2007 NE 16-0 52.9% 1 42.5% 1 Lost Super Bowl 2004 BUF 9-7 31.3% 3 41.6% 1 Missed Playoffs 2012 DEN 13-3 36.5% 2 41.4% 2 Lost Div Round 2004 PIT 15-1 37.6% 1 41.4% 2 Lost AFC Championship 1992 DAL 13-3 35.1% 1 40.6% 1 Won Super Bowl 1994 SF 13-3 27.6% 3 39.5% 1 Won Super Bowl
The difference is the two charts are weighted and non-weighted. To make things easier to understand the first describes a team’s play over the course of the season while the second places more importance the teams play of late. As evidence the second chart of results cannot be ignored as it almost guarantees a Seattle victory. Then again this is just numbers, anything can happen on any given Sunday.
Seattle’s X-Factor: Tyler Lockett
The rookie 3rd round pick has been electrifying all season in the return game as well as the passing game. With Josh Norman expected to blanket Doug Baldwin, Lockett will receive a bigger chunk of the passing game. Did we mention he also has that clutch factor? Everyone remembers the big 3rd down play that gave Seattle their only touchdown opportunity a week ago.
Why Carolina Will Win:
- They Went 15-1 For A Reason:
Cam Newton could be the MVP of the league. Not only that but he also been Super man all season long having virtually no weapons outside of Greg Olsen. When hope seemed lost having Kelvin Benjamin on injured reserve, Newton rallied the troops better then anyone could have predicted. The defense will be problematic for Russell Wilson as they feature the league’s best middle linebacker in Luke Keuchly. Top corner Josh Norman will also be a problem for Seattle as evidence of Odell Beckham’s meltdown. The Panthers lone loss came in week 16 on the road in Atlanta. The Panthers have already beaten Seattle on the road, what makes people think they can’t do it again at the comfort of home.
- No One Believes In Us:
I’ve never seen a team that was so dominate in the regular season and have so many people pick against them. This is the defending NFC champion Seahawks they are up against but the picks have been virtually all Seattle. The will be motivation for Cam and company for sure. Especially offensively where they put up 27 points in Seattle. They were able to run and pass efficiently during a ruckus environment. If things get crazy look for Cam to run for big 1st downs changing the tide of the game.
- Vegas Likes Carolina:
They love that people are taking Seattle. Currently they are projected to win the game by a field goal according to Vegas. That line might just be 2.5 for a reason right? Oddly enough this same website did go 0-2 yesterday with their picks of Arizona and Kansas City. We can’t expect them to lose 3 straight right?
Carolina’s X-Factor: Ted Gin
I wouldn’t trust him to catch a Nerf football let alone a real one but there is no denying he is explosive. A big bust in coverage leading to a Ginn score could be the difference.
Def Pen Staff Picks:
David Morrow – Carolina Panthers
Rob Lopez – Carolina panthers
Honi Ahmadian – Carolina Panthers
When picking this game I like Seattle’s track record far too much. I believe getting their opening playoff jitters out of the way will also help tremendously. Its hard enough to beat Seattle once in a season let alone twice. Pete Carroll teams always play well down the stretch and are trending up at the right time.
PREDICTION: Seattle Defeats Carolina 31-17
