A trip to the Super Bowl is on the line as the New England Patriots will travel to the Denver Broncos. New England will be seeking a sort of revenge game as the Broncos defeated the Patriots back on November 29th in overtime. Brock Osweiler started the game for the Broncos back in November. This time Peyton Manning will get the start that will create the 17 meeting between Manning and Tom Brady. Let’s take a look at some keys to the game during the first conference championship game.
WHY New England Will Win:
- Tom Brady Owns Peyton Manning
Tom leads the lifetime series over Manning 11-5. Furthermore Bill Belichick is Manning’s nemesis. While the rivalry is stuck at 2-2 during postseason play, Brady’s numbers are fare better than Manning’s during that run. That mental factor will surely play a factor during the game. Let’s face it this isn’t the same Manning either. In fact Brady has thrown more touchdown passes in Denver than Manning has (Brady 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions – Manning 1 touchdown, 8 interceptions). Manning’s play is the postseason isn’t anything to brag about and his dead arm wont play well during these cold weather conditions.
- The Patriots Offense Is More Explosive
X’s and O’s wise the Patriots match up very well with the Broncos. The strength of this Denver team is their defense particularly their pass rush. As we known New England’s offense often times involves getting rid of the football quick running short and intermediate routes putting much less pressure on the offensive line. Then when you break down the weapons Gronk, Edelman, Amendola they are far more effective based on the quarterback play. In terms of going out and getting points you have to think Brady will reach the 20 point mark, something I’m not so sure Manning can.
- The Patriots Will Be More Prepared During The Rematch
I can promise you C.J. Anderson won’t come close to the 113 yards rushing he had last meeting. I can also promise you Denver won’t score 30 points like they did last meeting. The Pats defense is also getting healthy at the right time as star linebacker Jamie Collins is good to go. The Pats may also be playing with a sort of edge with motivation to prove the league wrong about the deflategate scandal. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line Belichick will certainly have some sort of play calling wrinkle that hasn’t been seen before.
New England’s X-Factor: James White
converting third downs could be a key in this game for the Pats. Look for James White to be a huge factor as the teams check down man out of the back field. If Denver losses contain look for White to make a difference.
WHY Denver Will WIN:
- Destiny
We have seen this parody before. Ray Lewis went out on top, Jerome Bettis went out on top, and now maybe it’s Manning’s turn. There are many superstition narratives to this story. Is there a reason the line to this game was on Patriots -3 despite Denver’s win the first time and Denver’s home field advantage yet over 70% of the betting money has gone with the Patriots. Vegas often times knows what they are doing and they are looking to cash in big time on a Broncos victory.
- This Is The Best Defense In The NFL
While Gary Kubiak has done a great job coaching this team the real MVP may be defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Phillips has had these guys anger playing with a purpose. Denver leads the NFL in sacks (52) that will be the key in the game. Everyone knows Brady’s one true kryptonite is facing pressure. If guys like Vonn Miller and DeMarcus Ware can create havoc on their own without brining more bodies it could spell trouble for Brady.
- Clear Run Game Advantage
I’m not so sure Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson are even good but what I do know is a Peyton Manning run offense is always effective. Furthermore head coach Gary Kubiak knows what he is doing in that category helping develop backs such as Justin Forsett and Arian Foster. We also saw how ineffective the Patriots run game was last week with Steven Jackson. Jackson had a total of 6 carries for 16 yards, an area that has to concern the Patriots. If the game is close I worry the Patriots will not be able to sufficiently burn clock with a poor rushing attack.
Denver’s X-Factor: Danny Trevathon
Covering Gronk is no easy task. The Broncos realize this and will likely mix up coverages between Brandon Marshall, T.J. Ward, and Trevathon. Trevathon may be the man for the job as he has extraordinary speed for a linebacker.
In the end the Brady Belichick combination is too much for me to overlook. As much as destiny is on Manning’s side it wasn’t to long ago that we thought he should retire immediately. I can’t see Manning put up a sufficient point total to get the job done
PREDICTION: New England defeats Denver 24-16
