The NFL season is sadly almost halfway complete. The Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, and Washington Redskins will be sitting on their couches this week enjoying their bye week. With 11 games on the docket this Sunday let’s take a look at my predictions against the spread this week.
6-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 2-4 Atlanta Falcons (ATL -7.5)
The Falcons are normally money in the Georgia dome and I expect it to stay that way. The question is will Atlanta cover the spread? This could be a battle of number one receivers as Leonard Hankerson will be out for Atlanta while Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy will miss the game for Tampa. When looking at this match up the clear advantage goes to Atlanta as Desmond Trufant has become a real shut down for the Falcons. One of my favorite draft picks this year will also be making his debut for the Falcons in Justin Hardy as I expect them to cover the spread by a hair.
Falcons defeat Bucs 27-19
5-2 Arizona Cardinals at 2-5 Cleveland Browns (ARI -5.5)
Chris Johnson looks like he’s playing in 2010 again right? Combined with Cleveland’s historically bad run defense this makes this game look like a no brainer. The Cardinals have also done a great job of blowing inferior teams out including a 47-7 wins over the 49ers. Three times Arizona has gone over 40 points as I expect today to look quite similar bouncing back from an ugly win over the 1-6 Ravens.
Cardinals defeat Browns 44-10
2-4 San Francisco 49ers at 3-3 St. Louis Rams (STL -8)
Another giant spread expect this time 8 is a little to rich for my taste. The Rams have simply been a different team with the emergence of Todd Gurley as this comes to no surprise as I said last year that he was the college back I watched since Adrian Peterson. The fighting Tomsula’s on the other hand have been a complete train wreck all season. The 9ers should been at least slightly improved after having 10 days to prepare after losing last Thursday to Seattle. In the end I believe the Rams running game will eat to much of the clock to make this game into a blowout.
Rams defeat 49ers 21-17
4-3 New York Giants at 3-4 New Orleans Saints (NO -3.5)
Both teams are coming off big wins last week defeating the Cowboys and Colts respectively. The decider in this one may come down to how effective Eli Manning is on the road in that hostile environment. He will likely need a good performance from Rashad Jennings and company in order to quite the crowd at the Mercedes dome. In the end I expect this to be a field goal game so getting 3.5 with the Giants makes the most sense here.
Giants defeat Saints 27-24
4-2 Minnesota Vikings at 2-4 Chicago Bears (MIN -1)
Is it just me or does something feel not quite right. The 4-2 Vikings have been a pleasant surprise under the strong leadership of Mike Zimmer. The Bears on the other hand have been a mess but have been significantly better due to the return of Jay Cutler. Divisional game, at home, with a strange line? I’m taking the Bears in an upset win as this just has a weird enough feel to take the upset. Expect a big game from Alshon Jeffery who finally looks healthy.
Bears defeat Vikings 31-17
2-5 San Diego Chargers at 1-6 Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3.5)
Has any team been more embarrassing than the Baltimore Ravens? Outside of Detroit’s inevitable demise under the invariable lame duck Jim Caldwell I don’t think anyone saw the Ravens as a 1-6 football team. To make matters worse for Baltimore all 6 losses have been one possession games. The Ravens are historically better at home yet the Chargers will absolutely look to shake off an ugly loss to the Raiders last week. I’m sorry but what has Baltimore done this season to warrant cover a spread of any sorts. Expect Lardarius Green to have a big game for San Diego with Antonio Gates missing today’s game.
Chargers defeat Ravens 21-19
6-0 Cincinnati Bengals at 4-3 Pittsburgh Steelers (EVEN)
This is the game of the week in my opinion and will garner most of my attention today. The undefeated Bengals will travel to Pitt to take on the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger is also expected to return as fans have grown restless after watching Michael Vick and Landry Jones struggle to keep the team afloat. For me this game is a statement game on both sides. The Bengals are tired of hearing the doubters as beating the Steelers Sunday will all but lock up the division in October. For Pittsburgh the Steelers are currently holding onto a wildcard spot and could get back in the division race with a win. I expect the Steelers to ride their emotional high off of the return of their star quarterback. Cincy has to lose eventually right?
Steelers defeat Bengals 35-31
1-5 Tennessee Titans at 2-5 Houston Texans (HOU -4)
My preseason prediction of Houston making the playoffs is starting to look rather foolish at this point. In order for that to remain status quo my statement of Zach Mettenberger being better than Marcus Mariota will also have to come true. Both teams have been cellar dwellers in the league’s worst division. Houston will also be without Arian Foster after tearing his Achilles. Then again didn’t he have this coming for him after what he did in the offseason? Nevertheless without Foster I simply can’t see the Texans being 4 points better than the Titans. Look for Zach Mettenberger to put on a show for Tennessee after being stymied by a tough Atlanta group last week.
Titans defeat Texans 35-13
4-2 New York Jets at 3-3 Oakland Raiders (NYJ -3)
If there is anyone game I would like to stay away from picking it’s this one. Both teams have surprisingly took the league by storm after coming in with small expectations. Both teams are also under new leadership bringing in strong defensive minds to their respective teams. The match up everyone will be watching is rookie Amari Cooper’s performance against Revis island. If Cooper has a quite day I can’t see Oakland pulling out a win as Derek Carr will likely see pressure for much of the afternoon. While I love what Cooper brings to the table it could be a nice learning experience taking on Revis during his rookie campaign.
Jets defeat Raiders 20-17
3-4 Seattle Seahawks at 2-4 Dallas Cowboys (SEA -5.5)
The Seahawks still have nightmares after watching DeMarco Murray tear their defense to shreds last season. This go around will feature Darren McFadden after his renaissance rushing performance last week. With Joseph Randle suspended the McFadden/ Christine Michael one two punch will look to repeat except this time Dallas will trout out Matt Cassel. Seattle isn’t going to let Matt Cassel beat them right? Dallas will also be helped by the return of Dez Bryant but will likely be limited regardless with Richard Sherman shadowing him for the entirety of the game. Expect Seattle to use a heavy dosage of Marshawn Lynch in a battle tested win over Dallas.
Seahawks defeat Cowboys 35-28
