The NFL is officially entering the 2nd quarter of the season after an exciting first 4 weeks. The Panthers, Dolphins, Jets, and Vikings will hold their bye weeks this week. The Dolphins in particular could benefit from this as they are in the midst of a coaching change hiring former NFL tight end Dan Campbell to be the interim head coach. With 12 games on the docket this Sunday let’s take a look at my picks.
Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons (ATL -7.5)
I don’t think anyone could have predicted the Atlanta Falcons to start the season at 4-0. Nevertheless this team has been sensational playing the game fundamentally sound on all facets of the ball. The defense has been much improved under Dan Quinn but the real unsung hero of this team has been offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Atlanta is 3rd in the league with 34.3 points per game lead by brilliant play calling. Then again should we really be surprised as this guy is the only coach who ever made Robert Griffin III look productive during his coaching stint in Washington. Outside of Julio Jones both teams talent level is relativity equal but I’m taking the Falcons to cover the spread at home inside the Georgia dome.
Prediction: Falcons defeat Redskins 31-20
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (BAL -6.5)
When you think of teams that best overcome adversity look no further than the Baltimore Ravens. This team just simply plays better when no one believes in them. Quarterback Joe Flacco is the perfect example of this as there are moments it looks like he simply does not care but when the game counts there isn’t another quarterback id rather have on the field. Since 2008 when head coach John Harbaugh took over the Ravens the team is 13-1 against the Browns winning by an average margin of 9.8 points per game. Based on recent history, current circumstances, and the Ravens track record at home I have to swallow the step 6.5 points and take the Ravens.
Prediction: Ravens defeat Browns 23-10
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (BUF -1)
This game seems like sort of a gimme doesn’t it? Buffalo -1 at Tennessee, ill take the Bills all day and I don’t really care that LeSean McCoy isn’t playing. McCoy has averaged a pedestrian 3.4 yards per carry and I have complete confidence that Boobie Dixon can handle the load. The scariest part of Buffalo’s team is obviously the defense which should give rookie signal caller Marcus Mariota fits.
Prediction: Bills defeat Titans 25-13
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -3)
Is anyone really impressed with what the Bengals are doing right now cause I’m simply tired of people talking about it. Sure Cincy is 4-0, sure Andy Dalton is playing out of his mind, sure are a talented group but am I going to get overly excited about a team that hasn’t won a postseason game since 1991? No, the Bengals are playing a team that has played in back to back Superbowl’s and you’re giving me 3 points with the Seahawks. Not having Marshawn Lynch is concerning but Fred Jackson is certainly capable of getting the job done. Don’t overthink this the Bengals are exactly who we think they are it’s just a matter of time before they go back to where they belong.
Prediction: Seahawks defeat Bengals 31-27
St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (GB -10)
10 points is going to be hard to swallow and it is almost like the Vegas odds makers are daring people to take the Rams this week after they stunned the Cardinals on the road the week prior. Then again this game is a week to week affair never get to high or low on a team. In this case I think people may be over hyping the Rams, then again they do have all the elements to pull off the upset.
How To Beat Aaron Rodgers
- Have a pass rush – Check (The Rams have a dominant front 7, 2nd in NFL in sacks 17)
- Don’t turn the ball over – Check (Since 2013 Nick Foles is 5th in TD/INT Ratio)
- Control the clock, run the ball – Check (Todd Gurley rushed for 143 yards in his true debut)
Doesn’t seem to good to be true? My head is telling me to take the Rams but my gut tells me the odds makers know something we don’t.
Prediction Packers defeat Rams 35-24
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (KC -10)
Arrowhead stadium is an incredibly tough place to play but how on earth is this line -10? We are talking about a team lead by Alex Smith right? Mr. Check down himself won’t outplay Jay Cutler by 10 points. Not only am I taking the Bears but I’m picking them to win outright. Of course Chi town will be aided by the return of superstar wide out Alshon Jeffery. Then again fantasy owners aren’t so happy with Jeffery so far but that’s because they didn’t read my Don’t Eat The Cheese article in advance.
Prediction: Bears defeat Chiefs 24 – 21
aNew Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -5)
Both teams have major disappointments so far to start the season. The Saints are coming off a big win Sunday night over the Dallas Cowboys thanks to an 80 yard touchdown pass to C.J. Spiller. The Saints defense has struggled while their offense is still struggling from losing Jimmy Graham. Philadelphia on the other hand has suffered from a severe case of an over hyped preseason. Philly’s offense has been a problem looking rather anemic for three reasons.
- Poor offensive line play
- Slow development from young receivers (Jordan Mathews & Nelson Agholor)
- Asinine play calling in terms of DeMarco Murray’s running schematics
While Chip Kelly is a great play caller maybe he has certainly proved he should not be the one making personnel decisions as he has not adapted his scheme to his players skill sets. Will this be the week he finally makes adjustment’s? Maybe, but it may not matter for this week at least. I expect the Eagles to pull this one out at home but I will be more concerned with what I see on the play calling side of things. DeMarco Murray didn’t rush for 1,800 yards last year running plays out of the shot gun. If those things continue to reoccur Philadelphia may find themselves in the basement of the NFC East with Chip Kelly finding greener pastures in the college game. For now Ill stick with Chip for one more week but this is his last straw.
Prediction: Eagles defeat Saints 27-18
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -2.5)
It doesn’t get much uglier than this right? Both teams have been competitive but both sit at 1-3 in rather inadequate divisions. Both teams are located in Florida so there is unlikely to be much of a home field advantage for Tampa. This game purely a toss up and could go either way as both teams are constructed rather similarly.
Bucs defeat Jags 14-9
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (ARI -2.5)
So you’re telling me I have to only give up 2.5 points against the win less Lions? What’s the catch here? The Lions have lame duck coach Jim Caldwell combined with his pathetic 32nd ranked rushing attack. The Cardinals have possibly the brightest offensive coach in the league in Bruce Arians so what am I missing? Nothing, odds makers have been disrespecting the Cardinals for the entire season as they were embarrassing teams prior to last weeks blunder at home vs St. Louis. Are we really suppose to believe this team won’t rebound vs the Dolphins of the North? Take the Cardinals this one’s easy.
Prediction: Cardinals defeat Lions 38-14
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (DEN – 4.5)
After week one I looked rather idiotic for picking the Raiders to finish in 3rd place in the AFC West. Now that statement looks rather accurate as they enter week five with a respectable 2-2 record. Can the Raiders keep it going against Denver this week? Probably not, but I am rather tempted to pick them. Denver might be the league’s worst undefeated team but as long as the weather stays relatively nice I have faith in Peyton Manning to keep the train rolling.
Prediction: Broncos defeat Raiders
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (NE -8.5)
I’m sorry but as long as Brandon Weeden is the starting quarterback I can’t see myself picking the Cowboys even with this generous 8.5 point spread. Adding Tom Brady’s eye of the tiger look can anyone pick against the Patriots at this point. Dallas is also a worse home team going 8-0 on the road last season while finishing 4-4 at home in 2014. Not only are the Patriots 3-0 but they are 3-0 against the spread.
Patriots defeat Cowboys 41-21
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (NYG -6.5)
The Giants are rolling, not only are they rolling but this has sort of a 2007 feel all over again with the Patriots dominating following offseason controversy and the Giants starting the season 0-2. Like that season the Giants had a habit of beating good teams while losing to weaker opponents. The Giants are also one of those teams that disappoint you the second you believe in them. Anything can happen during a prime time Sunday night game so I will take the points in favor of the ‘fighting Tomsula’s’.
49ers defeat Giants 23-20
