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May 12th, 2017

MLB Daily Fantasy Breakdown 5/12/17: Stick with Rick

Ryan Niemchick @ryanniemchick
MLB Daily Fantasy

Rick Porcello (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

Welcome to another edition of Def Pen sports MLB Daily Fantasy breakdown series. Today we will break down the top 3 pitcher plays in our opinion as well as give the best hitting stacks of the night. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and scoring system as that is our personal preference.

Pitchers:

*Important Note: When playing FanDuel daily fantasy baseball it has become evident that having a strong starting pitcher is an integral part of the success of a lineup. Strikeouts are weighted heavily in FanDuel’s scoring system thus making guys with a high strikeout upside very appealing. The SIERA stat (Skill interactive ERA) has become very popular amongst sabermetrics crowds of baseball and helps understand just how good the pitcher is. These two aspects of strikeout percentages and SIERA combined with ballpark factors as well as weather factors are all taken into consideration when analyzing the best fantasy pitcher of the night.

  1. Rick Porcello $9,500: Porcello holds the highest strikeout prediction of today’s slate, holding a 9.3 K/9 on the season while facing the Rays who have the highest strikeout percentage out of any team holding an absurd 26.1% strikeout rate. Despite starting the season a little rough, Porcello’s SIERA of 3.54 suggests he’s actually been pitching quite well with this SIERA actually higher than his CY young winning performance last year hosting a 3.78 SIERA.
  2. Patrick Corbin $7,600: Corbin had his worst outing of the season in his last game, giving up 8 ER in 4 innings vs the Rockies. However, that game was in Coors field against a very potent offense in the Rockies. Tonight Corbin faces a team in the Pirates who have scored an average of 2.11 runs per game over their last 9 games and posting an abysmal batting average against lefties of .206. His price along with his enticing matchup make him a very appealing play tonight.
  3. Clayton Kershaw $9,800: Clayton Kershaw at a sub 10k pricing on FanDuel is something we haven’t seen in years. Based on our K/matchup research he has the 2nd highest strikeout percentage of today’s slate. An important thing to keep in mind about Kershaw is that he is playing in Coors field against a very good offense, he pitched in Coors field and gave up 4 ER in 6 innings posting only 24 FanDuel points in his last outing here about a month ago. However, this is Clayton Kershaw we are talking about, he is the epitome of an high-risk high-reward play tonight as we could very well see one of those patented 10+ K and 8+ IP performances that we have become accustomed to seeing over the past few years from the Dodgers ace.

Hitters:

*Important Note: While often times you can get lucky by selecting individual players off of different teams, the best strategy for MLB Daily Fantasy is to stack hitters in a lineup as to rack up runs/RBIs if a guy scores another guy in your lineup. Think of it as similar to a QB/WR stack in football, where both get the points for a touchdown connection so by starting both and in the case that they score a touchdown you are getting seemingly double the points. This works in the same way, wherein if you stack a lineup you are maximizing your potential points.

MLB Daily Fantasy

Matt Carpenter and Jedd Gyorko (MLB/Getty Images)

  1. Cardinals – Facing a pitcher who isn’t extraordinarily familiar as a starter, the Cardinals should look to continue rolling along. Eddie Butler, the opposing pitcher, has just recently made Chicago’s roster in hopes of solidifying the Cubs’ 5th spot in the starting rotation. In the Cardinals’ last 6 games, they’ve averaged 7.17 runs per game; overall, they rank among the league’s best against RHP with a .268 average.
  2. Red Sox – The Red Sox are quite lethal, especially while playing at home in their hitters-oriented ballpark. They rank 4th in OBP% and have an astounding .279 average against right-handed pitching this season. But what makes them an even more enticing play has to be the combination of their low strikeout frequency & elite hard-hit ball percentage (2nd in the MLB). Facing a pitcher, Alex Cobb, who is susceptible to giving up hard-hit balls with regularity (36.4% of the time), the heart of Boston’s lineup should give Rick Porcello significant run support.
  3. Dodgers – It’s always good to play in Coors Field if you are a hitter. Los Angeles is hitting .277 against RHP and is second in on-base percentage this year. Additionally, they rank 8th in the majors for hard-hit ball percentage which bodes very well for players who can hit solid fly-balls in Coors. The opposing pitcher, Tyler Chatwood, has struggled thus far with a 4.34 SIERA and has surrender 1.85 HR/9 innings. Look for the Dodgers to seize this opportunity.

All stats and data courtesy of baseball reference and Fangraphs.

Contributed to by Josiah Brady, @steadylosing on Twitter.

As always with MLB Daily Fantasy make sure you check the weather as well as the starting lineups before lineups lock. If you have any questions comments concerns or would like advice, feel free to contact me or Josiah via Twitter.

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